Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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619 FXUS64 KMOB 202346 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 646 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions will remain prevalent across the region through Saturday afternoon. Calm or light/variable winds are expected tonight through early Saturday morning before generally turning easterly to southeasterly 5-10 knots late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. /21 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Dry conditions will persist through the forecast period as upper troughing pushes off the east coast and high pressure builds in. A rather stout upper trough extending from the Florida Peninsula northeast across the eastern seaboard will continue to lift northeast into the Atlantic. In its place, high pressure over central Texas will continue to nose into the deep south brining dry northerly flow across the area. At the surface a front has pushed deep into the central Gulf. All this will lead dry seasonable conditions across the area. With deep dry air in place, the only real adjustments made were to lower afternoon dewpoints and bump high temperatures up a degree or two as deep vertical mixing seems likely. Rain chances will remain near zero for the time being. BB/03 SHORT and LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Dry and warm conditions will likely continue through Tuesday as the upper ridge slowly pushes eastward across the deep south. Subsidence from the deep-layer ridging in place, along with lower moisture values (PWAT values around 1.2 to 1.5 inches) should keep rain out of the forecast through, at least, Tuesday. The pattern begins to chance Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next upper trough digs into the central US allowing for southwesterly moisture return to surge northward into the area. While rain chances will likely increase with the presence of better moisture midweek our attention will likely be more focused on areas of the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. Sometime mid to late next week a low pressure system will attempt to form over the northwest Caribbean/southern Gulf in association with a developing Central American Gyre (CAG). There still remains a lot of questions with regards to the overall upper-level pattern by this time and the evolution of the trough in the central US. Along with the questions in steering we also have questions on where this system actually decides to develop within the large Gyre. If a low is able to pinch off from the CAG, where exactly does it form? And lastly, what will be it`s trajectory? Will the ridge linger over our area long enough to push it west, will it feel the pull of the cutoff upper low to its northwest (if one does develop), or will the main trough be strong enough to pull this area northeast? Unfortunately, at this time, we do not know the answers to these questions. With the pattern being so complex and fickle, run-to- run and model-vs- model variability remains very high this far out. We will continue to monitor trends closely and will provide updates to the forecast once answers become more clear. We strongly urge residents and visitors across the entire Gulf Coast to continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days. BB/03 MARINE... Issued at 352 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A light, mostly offshore flow is expected into the early part of the weekend, with a more east to southeasterly flow expected to develop late in the weekend and continue into the early part of next week. Little change in seas is expected through the weekend and into the early part of next week. No expected hazards to small craft through the weekend and into the early part of next week, but winds and seas will likely be increasing by midweek and especially into late week, possibly posing a hazard to small craft as an area of low pressure (possibly tropical in nature) develops over the southern Gulf. BB/03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 71 93 70 92 71 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pensacola 74 90 73 90 74 89 75 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 76 89 75 89 74 88 75 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 69 94 67 94 68 93 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Waynesboro 69 94 68 93 69 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Camden 69 94 68 93 69 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 69 94 68 94 68 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob