Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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694 FXUS63 KOAX 250450 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1150 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with mostly dry conditions through Thursday. - A complex weather pattern is in store going into and lasting through the weekend, with increasing confidence in drier conditions and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Water vapor analysis reveals an upper level trof that`s deepening as it pushes southeast this morning. That and the ridging over the western half of the CONUS leaves a 60 knot jet diving directly south over the High Plains. Surface analysis shows the cold front just pushing into the far southeastern tip of Nebraska as of 2 PM. A band of showers tied to the upper level feature this morning was responsible for some rainfall totals of about few hundredths. Had a high total of 0.18" reported via social media in Lincoln. Those showers have all but ended. Along that cold front this afternoon, SBCAPE of up to 1,000 J/kg can be expected with shear values of about 30 knots. CAMs have produced some minor convection along the MO/NE intersection between 2pm and 6pm. Sure enough, there are some new returns in southwest Iowa over the past 30 minutes. Expect an isolated thundershower to develop there with better chances in the Show- Me state through 6pm. .TONIGHT... As the upper low continues southeast, a surface high builds into the area clearing skies and dampens wind speeds. Temps should drop below 50 degrees for most. Have undercut NBM guidance due to pattern recognition. It`s time to consider winterizing that irrigation system. .WEDNESDAY and into the WEEKEND... Watching the long-range global models trying to prog the development of the tropical system in the GOM and it`s interaction with the upper low pushing through the Great Plains has been fun over the past few days and they`re quickly coming to a mutual solution. The lows will meet over the southeast and merge - like Voltron - into one powerful stacked low over over the southern Ohio River Valley. The low will be cut-off from steering flow through the weekend and will deposit significant and generally needed rainfall to Missouri and points south and east. This CWA may be clipped by a few light showers on our southeastern edge and see increasingly cloudy skies, especially high clouds, build in from the southeast. Showers will be more of the nuisance variety as QPF will be mostly inconsequential. Most localities will remain dry. That mega low opens up and pushes east early next week as another trof pushes through the Northern Plains. High temperatures over the next seven days are going to be near seasonal norms and should vary little from day to day. It should be a rather pleasant week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1133 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Some patchy fog could develop over southwest Iowa and far southeast Nebraska tonight. Otherwise, expect skies to remain mostly clear overnight, with light northwest winds veering to the north by Wednesday afternoon, and east Wednesday evening. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...KG