718
FXUS61 KOKX 271537
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1137 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds to the north this afternoon as a cold
front to the south becomes stationary. A complex frontal system
then approaches from the southwest by tonight. A stationary
front will remain just south of the area as high pressure builds
in from the north on Saturday and lingers through Monday. Low
pressure passes to the south Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by
a frontal passage late Wednesday into next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front across southern New Jersey extending eastward into
the Atlantic become nearly stationary this afternoon as high
pressure to the north builds slowly to the south. With the
chances of rain remaining mainly to the south into the evening,
with the high dominating, have updated probabilities based on
the latest HRRR and CAMs. Also, with clearing across the
northern areas, the Lower Hudson Valley into southern
Connecticut, updated cloud cover.

Weak high pressure, centered over the region and upstate New
York, and into southern Canada will continue to build into the
area this afternoon as a complex frontal system slowly
approaches from the southwest into evening.

As the frontal system approaches from the southwest later
today, an area of deformation on the far northern edge of the
frontal system may result in the development of light showers
into the evening. The showers likely don`t make much northward
progression and the region of forcing stalls over the
southwestern portions of the area tonight. This may allow for
additional shower activity into the overnight hours and early
Saturday morning.

Highs today will be seasonable, generally in the low to middle 70s.
Lows tonight will be in the low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to build into the area from the north into
Saturday and through the weekend. At the same time, a stationary
boundary on the northeastern portion of the cut-off low over the
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys remains over the southwestern
portion of the CWA. Additional scattered shower activity may persist
into Saturday and early Sunday. Northeastern portions of the area
may not see any shower activity at all the entire weekend. The
pressure gradient tightens a bit over the area this weekend allowing
for a persistent easterly flow to once again develop Saturday into
Sunday. This will both moderate high temperatures and keep low level
moisture in place, even as high pressure builds in. Areas of morning
fog are possible both Saturday and Sunday.

High pressure builds in a little more firmly on Sunday, pushing the
showers further to the south and allowing for a generally drier day,
despite continued low level moisture and generally overcast to
mostly cloudy skies persisting. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The overall forecast thinking has not changed much in the long term
and continued to stay close to the consensus forecast using the
latest NBM.

The upper low to our west will slowly weaken and slide east towards
the Middle Atlantic coast early next week with the second low moving
further offshore. The guidance is still differing in the speed and
handling of the upper low to the west, but the overall impact to the
region will be minimal. Despite the differences, there should be
weak surface low development just off the Middle Atlantic sometime
Monday night into Tuesday. The low then slides south and east of the
area through Wednesday. The 12z guidance is starting to come into
better agreement with the low far enough from the coast to limit how
much precip could make into the area. NBM deterministic PoPs are
still in chance category and this seems reasonable given the
uncertainty this far out with the evolution of the upper levels. The
other feature will be continued high pressure ridging down across
the northeast Saturday night through at least Tuesday. The high
should begin to weaken on Wednesday in response to a progressive
northern stream trough approaching the from the west. An associated
front will move across sometime late Wednesday into Thursday, likely
weakening as it moves towards the coast.

Sky conditions should remain mostly cloudy for much of the period.
The atmosphere should dry out considerably once the front passes mid-
late week. Temperatures look to remain close to normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Conditions mainly dry today with high pressure building in from
the north. A frontal boundary remains to the south of the
region.

MVFR to VFR conditions expected to become all VFR this
afternoon before returning to MVFR tonight as the frontal
boundary returns northward. The MVFR will be for ceilings with
lower stratus.

A chance of showers returns to the forecast for tonight and into
the rest of the TAF period.

Winds will be easterly through the TAF period near 10 kts or
less.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Chance that MVFR conditions persist through the day and into
tonight with a cold front stalling not too far south of the
terminals.

Amendments are likely for timing of flight category changes and
wind shifts to the ESE.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR with chance of showers.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR in showers.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers.


Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Updated weather and probabilities as high pressure pushed into
the forecast waters from the north.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected for all waters through at least
tonight. A tightening pressure gradient on Saturday will allow
for gusts to approach 25kt on the ocean with wave heights
building to near 5 feet. SCA conditions will be possible as
early as Saturday afternoon and linger through Sunday afternoon.
Sub-SCA are then expected on all waters through Monday night.
SCA conditions possible again on Tuesday as low pressure passes
to the south of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk today as swells subside a bit
with weaker winds. The risk may start out moderate Saturday before
becoming high in the afternoon as seas and swells build along with a
stronger easterly flow.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JM/DW
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...