735
NWXX04 KWNP 200156
ADVOUT

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
Boulder, Colorado, USA

SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #24-21
2024 May 19 at 7:54 p.m. MDT (2024 May 20 0154 UTC)

**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****

Summary For May 13-19

R1 (Minor), R2 (Moderate), and R3 (Strong) radio blackouts were observed 13-15 May, with R1-R2 events 16-17 May, and R1 activity on 19 May. Most early week flaring was associated with Region 3664 and as 3664 rotated beyond the limb, new region 3685 became the source of most flare activity.

S1-S2 (Minor-Moderate) solar radiation storm began 13 May, peaked on 14 May at S2 levels and ended on 16 May.

Periods of G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms occurred early on 13 May. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels were reached on 16 May and again on 17 May. All storm levels were in response to various CME activity.

Outlook For May 20-26

R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on 20-21 May with a slight chance of R3 (Strong) events due to the combined flare probabilities of the nine regions - with the primary contributor Region 3685.

There is a slight risk of an S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm 20-26 May due primarily to the solar energetic particle event probability of Region 3685.

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 20 May due to anticipated arrival of a CME. Conditions are anticipated to decrease to active levels on 21 May as CME influences wane; with quiet conditions expected 22-23 May. CME and CH HSS influences on 24-25 May will likely lead to unsettled to active conditions. Quiet levels are expected to return by 26 May.



Space Weather Prediction Center links
Current space weather conditions http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts
Alerts http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings
Outlook http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/space-weather-advisory-outlook

Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA,
USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Service (ISES)
and other observatories, universities, and institutions. For more
information, including email services, see SWPC`s Space Weather
Prediction Center Web site http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ or (303) 497-3171.