Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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077 FXUS63 KPAH 212211 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 511 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cold front will slowly push through the region Sunday into Monday, bringing periods of showers and storms. The risk for severe storms is marginal Monday, with gusty winds and hail the main hazards of concern during peak heating. Rainfall totals should broadly range from one half to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, especially along the I-64 corridor. - Cooler and less humid conditions arrive behind the cold front for the rest of the week with highs only ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain chances linger into Tuesday, with additional low rain chances possible towards the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 507 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 An increasingly active and unsettled weather pattern will evolve across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the first half of the new week. An upper level ridge will be suppressed into the southern U.S. as ripples of shortwave energy stream through the southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, a cold front will slowly approach and eventually pass through the region by Tuesday. The forcing accompanying each wave of energy will act upon the humid and unstable air mass across the region to yield periods of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night and Tuesday. In the near term, convective activity is likely to be more hit or miss through Sunday until better forcing arrives on Monday. Better rain chances appear to be focused across the northern half of the forecast area on Sunday before expanding south to encompass the entire area by Monday. Even so, isolated to widely scattered activity cannot be ruled out practically anywhere through the period. SPC has much of the area outlooked in a marginal risk for severe weather on Monday, when locally strong storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and/or hail. However, much of that is contingent on how much the atmosphere is able to destabilize amidst the presence of what appears likely to be an abundance of cloud cover. Rainfall totals through Monday night and Tuesday are forecast to range from less than an inch across southern portions of western Kentucky up to 2 inches or more across northern portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana. That said, there will likely be a wide range in outcomes given the scattered nature of the activity, with some locations receiving very little rain while other locations receive potentially in excess of 3 inches with repeat heavy downpours. Beyond Tuesday, a trend towards mainly dry weather and cooler weather is anticipated in the wake of the cold frontal passage. That said, model agreement isn`t the best during the middle to latter half of the week, which lends to lower than average forecast confidence. A number of model solutions suggest a cut-off low may develop over the south central U.S., and this could potentially interact with a tropical system forecast to impact the Gulf Coast later in the week. Given the rather complicated low confidence forecast, substantial changes are possible as the week progresses. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 507 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A convectively more active pattern will feature high chance showers/storms early this evening at KEVV/KOWB, followed by a quiet bulk of the night before chances pick up again tmrw late tonight into early tmrw morning. Where a shower/storm occurs, the chance for restricted CIGS and/or VSBYS is greatest. Otherwise it will be generally Visual Flight Rules, excepting where patchy fog might develop, most likely (if it occurs) at prone locations like KCGI/KMVN. Tmrw will see a little more activity/coverage to scattered showers and storms as today did. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$