765
FXUS65 KRIW 270703
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
103 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Summer in late September continues into the weekend with well
  above normal temperatures.

- Elevated to critical fire weather is likely for Sunday, and
  possible on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures for next week, but still near to above
  normal. Precipitation chances will remain near zero.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

I`ve often said that September is the best month in the normally
wild, wooly weather of Wyoming. The days are usually still warm, but
nights are cool. And with most of the tourists gone for the season,
we have most of the state to ourselves. The weather has been very
tranquil for the past several days. And, it looks like mainly
tranquil weather will continue for several days, as the next chance
of precipitation will be the middle of next week at the earliest
and maybe not until the 2nd week of October.

There are basically no concerns through Saturday as the ridge of
high pressure continues to dominate the weather across the area,
bringing temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal and an abundance
of sunshine. A few of the warmer spots will make runs at 90
each afternoon. Wind will be light today. There will be a bit
more wind tomorrow but only a bit breezy in the afternoon; nothing
to raise any concerns.

Concerns do ramp up a bit on Sunday as a trough moves across the
area from the west. The best moisture will remain to the north
though, so, no surprise, no precipitation is expected. The area will
be in the right front quadrant of the jet and with the tightening
pressure gradient, wind gusts over 30 mph are possible. With
humidity falling into the teens, elevated to possibly critical fire
weather will be possible. The big change will cooler temperatures,
still above normal but it will feel more like September than August
as the ridge gets flattened a bit to largely zonal flow. Breezy
conditions will continue on Monday, and with low humidity
continuing elevated fire weather will be possible again.

Tuesday at this point looks like a tranquil day. Another shortwave
and cold front may bring more wind and elevated fire weather for
Wednesday. There is a small chance of a shower for Wednesday across
the north. The chance is so small though, it reminds me of famous
quote of Jim Carrey`s character in the classic 90s movie  Dumb and
Dumber, "So your saying there`s a chance!" In other words, less
than 1 out of 20 chance. So, the pattern of above normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation looks to continue
into the first part of October.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Sep 26 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with pristine flying
to be had. Mainly clear skies and light winds generally
southwest to west for all locations throughout under the
influence of building high pressure. No other weather elements
are expected with similar conditions Saturday before some
stronger winds on Sunday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on smoke, icing, and turbulence
forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1258 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

No fire concerns are expected through Saturday. An approaching
dry cold front on Sunday will bring gusty winds and likely
elevated to critical fire weather on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Lowe
FIRE WEATHER...Hattings