522
FXUS61 KRLX 262336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
736 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will continue tonight. Remnants of Helene arrive
Friday morning, spreading strong gusty winds and additional
rainfall into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 510 PM Thursday...

Increased PoPs across the south and southwest portions of our
area based on ongoing precipitation and radar trends.

As of 202 PM Thursday...

Key Points:

 * Flash Flood Watch in effect until 7 PM Friday for southwest
   VA, and along the WV eastern mountains.

 * High Wind Warning in effect until 7 PM Friday for Dickenson
   and Buchanan in VA, and McDowell in WV.

 * Wind Advisory in effect until 7 PM Friday from Wyoming, north
   through the higher elevations of Pocahontas and Randolph
   counties.

Deepening upper level low pressure will continue to bring abundant
moisture and precipitation mainly across the southern half of
the area tonight. Meanwhile, the center of T.S. Helene will
approach from the south into central KY. Remnants of Helene
(precipitation and strong winds) will be arrive to our area
early Friday, bringing additional precipitation and non-
thunderstorm high/strong winds.

Radar rainfall estimates and rain gauges show from 2 to 4
inches of rain have fallen during the last 24 hours, wetting the
local terrain across the eastern mountains. Additional 1 to 2
inches can be expected over these areas through Friday evening.
This will continue to produce additional water rises of nearby
rivers and creeks, and flooding issues of low lying areas,
flood prone areas or even smaller creeks coming out of their
banks. Therefore, a Flash Flood watch was issued.

Remnants of Helene will be arrive to our area early Friday,
bringing additional precipitation and non-thunderstorm
high/strong winds. Dynamic ensemble model solutions suggest
strong winds 15 to 20 knots arriving to our eastern mountains
early Friday. There is high confidence for wind gusts exceeding
50 knots across our southern mountains, and up to 45 knots
across the higher elevations of our central and northern
mountains on Friday. Therefore, a High Wind Warning was issued
for Buchanan, Dickenson and McDowell through Friday evening. For
the same token, a Wind advisory was issued for the rest of the
higher elevations north to Pocahontas and Randolph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 206 PM Thursday...

Heavier precipitation should gradually be lifting north and west of
the area Friday night as remnants of Helene congeal with upper low
across MS Valley region, which will continue to rotate just to our
west, before gradually drifting east across the area over the
weekend, leading to a gradual increase in showery activity once
again. Expecting the gusty winds to continue Friday night across the
area, before relaxing over the weekend as the low continues to
weaken. Overall, a showery, gloomy, early fall weekend on tap, with
high temperatures generally topping out in the 60s to lower 70s
across the mountains, and generally mid 70s across the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 207 PM Thursday...

Weather remains unsettled early next week as aforementioned low
continues to depart eastward, followed by a front early to mid next
week. Showery and cooler weather will be the rule during much of the
period, although there are indications of high pressure building in
behind the front, for dry conditions, and near seasonable
temperatures to end the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

Precipitation shield continues to overspread mainly our southern TAF
sites with MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions in heavier showers possible,
especially at KHTS, KEKN, and KBKW, with namely VFR/MVFR conditions
expected elsewhere through the rest of the evening. Ceilings could
potentially plummet overnight leading to IFR conditions, mainly
across our south near KBKW and potentially near KHTS as well. As the
night progresses, winds will become stronger, peaking around the 14Z-
16Z time frame Friday morning, especially across our southern
lowlands as well as the mountains (where a Wind Advisory and High
Wind Warning are in place), then slowly subsiding by late Friday.
Winds will generally gust in the 25-35kt range across most of the
area with higher gusts likely across the far south near KBKW and in
the mountains where gusts of 45-60kts are possible.

Opted to leave out LLWS in TAFs owing to strong surface wind gusts
expected during the period, leading to a somewhat uniform increase
in wind speed with height as the remnants of Helene overspread the
area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of low CIGs will vary
somewhat from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 09/27/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Brief, but repetitive periods of IFR conditions possible in
showers and storms throughout the week and into the weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ033-034-515-516-518-
     520-522>524.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ033.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for WVZ034-515-516-518-520-
     522-523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ003-004.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...28/RPY/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...28/RPY/ARJ