Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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813 FXUS64 KTSA 220511 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1211 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 855 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Upper ridging continues to weaken as trough to the west slowly moves through the four corners region. Storms across parts of NW AR earlier this evening have dissipated, so main update will be to remove PoPs from those zones through 06z. Further west, areal movement with showers and storms across NC OK and KS will translate east overnight as the slow moving upper trough pushes into the plains. Current PoPs after 06z look good and will leave as they are. Temperatures overnight look reasonable with increasing cloud cover. Rest of the first period elements will be left as they are. Updated ZFP/PFM/AFM out shortly. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Saturday) Issued at 212 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 A pattern shift will commence Sunday as a positively tilted trough ejects off the Rockies and moves over the Central/Southern Plains. In response, a plethora of mid/high clouds will overspread the forecast area from northwest to southeast through the day. At the surface, a modest cold front, with considerably cooler and drier air behind it, will begin to move into the northwest part of the CWA by mid-morning, pushing southeastward through the area by early Monday morning. Isolated to scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the frontal boundary Sunday morning, mainly affecting far northeast OK, near the KS border. As the front continues to advance southeastward, daytime heating ahead of the front should increase instability in the afternoon (MLCAPE increasing between 1000-1500 J/kg). Given a moist boundary layer underneath 40-50 knots of 0-6km bulk shear, a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms look probable along and ahead of the front, with the highest threat occurring north of I-40 in OK and into far northwest AR. The primary hazards with any organized storm/cluster of storms will be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall that may lead to flooding, though small hail will also be possible. Guidance suggests the threat of severe thunderstorms lowers after sunset. Overall rainfall amounts through Monday should generally be less than an inch, though localized heavier amounts may occur. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion, forecast high temperatures are still somewhat uncertain on Sunday, especially north of I-40, and will be highly dependent on frontal timing/position and rainfall prior to peak heating. Particularly, north of I-44, temperatures may struggle to reach 80 degrees if the front is faster than forecast. Elsewhere, and especially across southeast OK and west-central AR, afternoon temperatures ahead of the front should rise into the low-mid 90s. The front will exit the forecast area by early Monday morning. Significantly cooler temperatures are expected on Monday as thick cloud cover and precipitation lingers behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms should gradually diminish from west-to-east through the day Monday as the upper-level trough shifts east of the area; dry conditions are forecast by Monday evening/night. There is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to the synoptic pattern beyond Monday. Consensus in global models and ensembles indicate a secondary upper-level trough/low developing over the Plains behind the initial trough by midweek, but how it evolves and where it tracks is highly uncertain at this time. At the moment, it appears slightly cooler to near average temperatures and slightly above normal rainfall is favored through the second half of the week and into next weekend. Mejia && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Widespread showers and scattered storms currently extend from south central KS through western OK and this precipitation is expected to make slow progress east through Sunday morning. A well defined outflow has pushed much further east and will produce a wind shift across NE OK terminals. Showers and storms will expand in coverage across E OK Sunday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough and associated cold front move east. Ceilings are likely to lower into MVFR range along and behind the front with showers and storms remaining a potential flight impact through Sunday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 61 74 57 79 / 70 40 0 0 FSM 70 77 62 82 / 40 70 10 0 MLC 63 76 56 82 / 50 70 0 10 BVO 56 73 51 80 / 60 30 0 0 FYV 64 74 55 77 / 60 80 20 10 BYV 65 73 58 76 / 60 80 30 10 MKO 62 72 56 78 / 60 60 10 0 MIO 60 71 55 76 / 70 60 10 0 F10 61 74 54 80 / 60 60 0 10 HHW 69 80 60 84 / 20 60 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...07