Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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557 FXUS63 KIWX 231839 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 239 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive later this evening and linger through much of the day Tuesday. - Dry midweek before a low chance (20-30%) of showers late this week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Abundant cloud cover today has effectively kept temperatures down. Most locations will only see highs in the 60s, although a few may get up to around 70 degrees. A low pressure system currently centered over Arkansas and Missouri will make its way northeastward this evening. Showers could begin moving into southwest portions of the forecast area as early as 6-7 pm EDT. While isolated thunder is possible, chances are slim due to a lack of instability. Showers will continue through the night, mainly south of US 24. Then as the low tracks farther northeast by daybreak, shower activity will also shift northward. The surface low will cross the region from southwest to northeast (White County, IN to Williams and Fulton counties in Ohio) on Tuesday afternoon. In its vicinity and in the warm sector to the southeast will be the best chances for thunderstorms. It is in this area where bulk shear will be 30-40 kts and CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg that SPC has extended the Marginal Risk for severe storms from around 3 pm through 9 pm. Damaging wind or hail could be possible, or even an isolated tornado. Wednesday will be mostly dry, but a few lingering showers may still be possible as the upper trough crosses the Great Lakes. On Thursday and Friday, the region will again be stuck between low pressure systems and high pressure will build back in. It will be dry and temperatures will warm, although it will not be as hot as last week, with highs confined mainly to the upper 70s or low 80s. Model uncertainty comes into play for the weekend concerning the position of an upper low to the southwest and a tropical system near the west coast of Florida. Consensus is that we should see more rain by Sunday into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 114 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Shortwave trough and attendant sfc wave over MO will lift out across the terminals Tue. Post frontal stratus holding firm so far through this morning yet should mix a bit higher through this afternoon. However increasing moisture flux late tonight and overspread of large, incoming rain shield out of srn/cntrl IL will bring about widespread IFR conditions by daybreak and continue through much of Tue. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...T