Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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988 FXUS62 KJAX 222148 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 548 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 514 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A quick update to let the Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal water inundation expire at 5 pm local time as water level subside from afternoon high tide. Minor tidal flooding will continue within the St. Johns River basin through the upcoming week where the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect. Only light showers late this afternoon for portions of NE FL in a weak convergent band near and south of Marineland with some diurnal showers across Putnam and Marion counties. This activity will fade with loss of heating by 8 pm as the surface ridge axis extends across NE FL. A few fading showers are possible near the Altamaha River basin between sunset and midnight as a weak surface front shifts southward before bumping into the ridge axis across NE FL which will limit southward progress. The main weather impact tonight will be inland areas of fog, some locally dense toward daybreak, especially toward the I-75 corridor of NE FL. Dry air mixed down today and combined with clear skies and calm winds overnight expect seasonally cool low temperatures in the mid 60s inland to low 70s coast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Weak high pressure ridge settles over the area this afternoon with a continued NE Flow along the Atlantic Coast, which will continue showers along the coastal areas south of St. Augustine and inland to Putnam/Marion Counties through sunset, but otherwise Mostly Sunny and dry elsewhere with above normal temps continuing with highs around 90F inland and middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast. Not as breezy this afternoon with Northeast winds at 10-15G20 mph along the Atlantic Coast and 5-10G15 mph over inland areas. Weak high pressure lingers over the area tonight and under mostly clear skies and calm winds over inland areas, expect low temps in the mid/upper 60s and locally dense fog to develop towards morning, with the lowest visibility expected across inland NE FL and along the I-75 corridor and dense fog advisories may be required close to sunrise Monday morning. Closer to the Atlantic Coast, some patchy fog will be possible as winds become light and variable during the overnight hours with lows in the lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the weather pattern through Tuesday with PWAT values measuring between 1 and 1.5 inches. Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southeast and south as high pressure gradually shifts more towards the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along Flagler and St Johns Counties through Tuesday with patchy to dense early morning fog expected to develop over inland areas during this period. High temperatures for the beginning of the week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 80% chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments remain somewhat ambiguous at this time, however abundant rainfall associated with the system is expected for the region. Daily high temperatures will experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the forecast period. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 NE Flow along the NE FL coast is producing some MVFR CIGS this afternoon at SGJ, otherwise VFR conds at all other TAF sites through the evening hours. Near calm winds develop after sunset tonight and expect fog to be a bigger issue late tonight with IFR conds likely at VQQ/GNV in the 08-12Z time frame, along with MVFR vsbys at JAX/CRG more likely in the 10-12Z time frame, but not expected along the coast at SSI/SGJ. VFR conds return in the 13-14Z time frame as fog lifts/dissipates and some FEW-SCT diurnal Cumulus develops late in the TAF period, but not expecting any MVFR CIGS at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Onshore flow continues but will ease today as high pressure slides into the waters. A weak pressure pattern will continue through the middle of next week as high pressure lingers to the east northeast. During the second half of next week, an area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical disturbance next week. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for rip currents for areas beaches through Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 206 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Decreasing astronomical tidal influences and easing onshore flow will lower tidal levels this afternoon. Minor tidal flooding remains a concern for the St Johns River basin. Trapped tides are likely to continue minor flood within the St Johns River and its tributaries into the coming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 91 68 91 69 / 10 20 0 0 SSI 85 71 86 74 / 0 10 0 0 JAX 89 69 90 72 / 0 10 10 0 SGJ 86 73 88 74 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 90 66 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 91 68 92 71 / 20 10 0 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-125- 132-137-225-325. GA...None. AM...None. && $$