Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
291 FXUS62 KKEY 201900 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Radar has been moderately busy today with showers and thunderstorms scattered around the CWA although not many are reaching Special Marine Warning criteria due to the light and mostly variable winds outside of convection. Later this evening into tonight dry air, seen on MIMIC Precipitable Water to our north currently, will make it`s way into our area limiting any further shower development. Opted to keep 40% PoPs for tonight as the dry air is slow moving and might not make it until overnight. PoPs are lowered through this weekend as the dry air sticks around for a few days. As for the long term forecast, it is quite uncertain and dependent on where the high pressure builds in. As a Central American Gyre is suggested to form it will support cyclogenesis, but the timing and location is still unclear. Regardless, small craft advisories may be required as the high pressure will support increased wind speeds. PoPs will remain near normal through the forecast package for the time being as things become more clear with any formation of the tropics. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Keys, and a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Middle and Lower Keys. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. As a trough slides slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic this weekend, as a ridge expands its control across the Southeast United States. Winds will begin to take on a predominantly light, easterly direction. Confidence in the extended marine forecast remains quite low and will be highly dependent on the expected formation of a low pressure system in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of the ultimate fate of this low, breezes are expected to freshen by Tuesday, as the low interacts with high pressure over the Southeast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH this afternoon. There will be slow moving showers and thunderstorms across the broader area and may periodically directly affect the terminals. As a result, brief spells of sub VFR conditions will be possible. Surface winds will be light and variable. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest