Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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017 FXUS64 KLUB 221746 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The much anticipated cold front was making steady progress south as of 2 AM along a line from Clovis to Dimmitt to Pampa. Regional ceilometers showed widespread low stratus immediately behind this front which will eventually overtake much of our forecast area this morning and stick with us through the majority of the day. Highs for the day are likely already in the bag as CAA deepens from here on resulting in temps falling into the upper 50s in the far SW TX Panhandle to the 60s elsewhere. The bigger picture depicts an upper low over CO with an attendant trough axis shearing out over the South Plains in SW flow, so deep layer forcing will be hard to come by today. Nevertheless, the cold front will do its best to garner scattered to numerous showers and storms this morning. The greatest PoPs remain east of I27 and Highway 87 closer to a SW-NE oriented moist axis around 850 mb. PWATs within this axis are already around 130% of normal and will only increase this morning as the column saturates further to the tune of nearly 2 inches. Given the weaker background ascent today, widespread heavy rains and flooding should be less pronounced than yesterday, so no further flood headlines are expected once the current Flood Watch expires at 7 AM CDT for our Panhandle counties. Aside from frontal convergence, there is an elevated post-frontal layer of ascent available today in the form of isentropic ascent from moist SW winds in the 305-310K layer. This ascent looks to fuel a second round of convection later this morning and afternoon, some of which could linger overnight in the Rolling Plains. Otherwise, considerably drier northerly winds will gradually take their toll on the stratus layer resulting in clearing skies across our NW zones where the chilliest lows in the lower 40s are forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Monday opens with dry and seasonably cool high pressure filtering through the area with clear skies and light winds. Weakly cyclonic westerly flow will veer more NW by Monday night ahead of an upper trough digging south through the Great Plains. Models are trending farther east with this wave thanks to a bullish longwave ridge shifting over the Rockies on Tuesday, so this casts considerable doubt on the NBM`s rain chances on Tuesday which can be attributed to the wetter models from prior days. Still, the NAM and a few GEFS members depict stronger daytime heating on Tuesday underneath cyclonic NW flow which could still prove favorable for storms thanks to steep mid-level lapse rates atop moistening southerly flow. Opted to leave NBM`s PoPs intact through Tuesday night and early Wednesday before steady height rises and rising thicknesses take foot as the upper high draws closer. Other than raising NBM`s high temps closer to MOS for Tuesday, no changes were needed with this package. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected through much of the day today through late tonight at all three TAF sites. Skies will begin to break and then clear from north to south through the morning hours. Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening at all three sites with potential reduced visibility and gusty erratic winds with any storms that move directly over the TAF sites. Otherwise, breezy north winds of 15 to 20 knots will diminish tonight to around 10 knots or less. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...11