Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --404 FXUS64 KAMA 241936 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 236 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ...-- Changed Discussion --(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Dry weather continues to hold over the Panhandles after the cold frontal passage late last night. Temperatures for the day are still on schedule to run slightly cooler than the last couple days with afternoon highs peaking around the low to mid 80s for today. As we head into the overnight, look for winds to shift back to southerly with the incoming weak trough and southwesterly flow that will follow in the upper-levels. Moving into Saturday, look for this southwesterly flow to hold for the day and aid in creating a very dry and gusty day for the Panhandles. Currently, latest guidance expects relative humidity values to bottom out across the Panhandles with most of the western counties looking at values in the single digits by that afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper-level jet will look to follow the weak trough into the area and bleed down to create gusty condition across the Panhandles. As it stand, southwesterly winds reaching the 25 to 30 mph mark with gust nearing 45 mph are possible, especially in the western Panhandles where winds are expected to be at their strongest. Of course when you add these dry conditions with gusty winds, critical fire weather is to be expected. At this time, a Red Flag Warning has been issue for the western half of the Panhandles that will run form noon Saturday afternoon until 8 pm that night. As for temperatures, look for them to rebound with many locations back into 90s with a couple of our hotter locations flirting with triple digits yet again. Otherwise, the only other concern for the day will be the very low potential of thunderstorms starting on the eastern border of the Panhandles before moving off into central Oklahoma. Scoleri-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM ...-- Changed Discussion --(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A trough is still likely to have passed to the east of the southern plains which in doing so will pass a weak cold front across the panhandles early on Sunday. This will shift the winds to a more northerly direction and bring in slightly cooler dry air. This will make both Sunday and Memorial day warm with sunny skies with generally light winds. All in all in can be considered by most to be a pleasant weather day to kick off the start of summer. For Sunday and Monday a ridge still has a high chance to build across NM to MT. This coupled with the trough to the east will set up a broad NW flow across the southern plains. This pattern will induce a southerly return flow across the southern plains bringing in ample gulf moisture to the panhandles. This will allow for rain showers and thunderstorms to form across the panhandles. The amount of moisture has been increasing from previous forecasts so it is looking increasingly likely that meaningful rainfall will occur. The upper flow does have some indications that small perturbations will transit over the ridge passing across the panhandles. These could provide the additional lift and dynamics to cause stronger storms. However these remain uncertain so just know that there is a chance for those strong storms but they are not yet guaranteed. Next weekend looks more likely than not to have another pattern shift with the ridge pushing east across the panhandles while a trough quickly deepens across the West. This pattern shift indicates that the moisture feed should be cut off from the panhandles while conditions become increasingly stable. This would have the effect of lowering the amount of rain showers and thunderstorms and also keeping rainfall amounts low. Temperatures mid to end of next week look to remain fairly stable with highs mainly in the 80s to low 90s. Winds look to pick up a standard diurnal pattern of weakly gusty during the daytime and light overnight. SH-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Surface winds continue to gust at all terminals through the early afternoon, with winds not expected to slow until the early evening. Expect these winds to slowly shift directions over the course of the day with all terminals expecting to have winds out of the south by late tonight. Otherwise, VFR conditions should hold for the next 24 hours at all the terminals. && .FIRE WEATHER... Saturday, winds are expected to strengthen through the morning into the afternoon hours to 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph. Morning relative humidity values in the western combined Panhandles will start rather high, between 50% to 60%, but plummet through the morning hours and into the afternoon to a minimum of 5% to 10%. This produces RFTI values between 5 to 7 with localized pockets of 8 possible. As such... a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of the western half of the combined Panhandles for Saturday. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Amarillo TX 55 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 52 95 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 48 90 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 56 100 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 55 97 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 53 95 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 53 95 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 49 91 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 50 94 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 53 96 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 53 93 60 89 / 0 10 0 0 Pampa TX 54 95 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 53 95 64 91 / 0 10 0 0 Wellington TX 53 97 64 93 / 0 10 0 0-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ001-002- 006-007-011-012-016-017-317. OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ001-002.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...11