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687
FXUS65 KCYS 242004
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
204 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday before winds return
  Sunday. A much warmer, milder week ahead as an upper-level
  ridge overtakes the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Pretty quiet weather on tap for the rest of today. Satellite
shows a large storm system moving across the northern High
Plains and in its wake, substantial clearing and drier
conditions have moved into much of the Front Range. Some spots
across the Arlington wind prone are still seeing some periodic
gusts around 45 mph, but overall the winds across the rest of SE
Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle have diminished this
afternoon.

Heading into Saturday we will be tracking a weak shortwave
trough pushing into Wyoming that could bring the chances for
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Still
questions remain about the amount of low level moisture and how
moist the boundary layer will become. While storms are expected,
the limited instability will keep storms from reaching severe
limits, but some small hail and gust winds will be possible.
Immediately on the heels of this first shortwave a second
shortwave will approach the area Saturday night through Sunday
morning. This shortwave moves through in a more favorable west
to east trajectory to induce some elevated to high winds across
the wind prone areas. At the base of this shortwave trough some
50kt mb winds are progged to spread across the I-80 corridor.
There could be some strong wind gusts observed along the south
Laramie Range and Foothills as well. In-house models are
pinpointing the likelihood for strong wind gusts for mainly the
Arlington wind prone area but Bordeaux and the I-80 summit may
also see periodic gusts of high wind criteria. Expecting a few
high wind highlights may be needed. We can`t rule out some pulse
thunderstorms across the higher terrain on Sunday as well.
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Looking like a dry Memorial Day for those that have outdoor plans.
Likely breezy across the area as a shortwave exits to our northeast,
but temperatures will be average for late May with afternoon highs
in the upper 60s and 70s.

Headed into the remainder of the work week, an upper-level ridge
will build over the Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday. This will lead
to warmer, above average temperatures during this time frame. By
Wednesday, highs will be in the upper 70s and low 80s. Ridging will
lead to dry conditions on Tuesday, but an embedded disturbance
moving through the ridge on Wednesday could spark some afternoon and
evening convection. Per GFS soundings for Wednesday afternoon, there
is the potential for severe storms. Soundings from across the
Nebraska panhandle do show over 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE, leading to a
large hail risk. Will also have to keep an eye on PWs as these same
soundings are encroaching on 1 inch PWs. Cloud layer winds are also
on the slower side which could lead to the potential for minor
flooding. Luckily, effective shear values aren`t too high, but this
should also be monitored in the coming days.

Thursday looks like it could be a repeat of Wednesday. An upper-
level trough spinning over the Pacific Northwest will send moist,
southerly flow into the CWA. High dewpoints in the panhandle could
spark thunderstorms, which could be spicier than Wednesday`s storms
with a greater potential for severe weather based on GFS soundings.
Higher CAPE values and stronger effective shear could make all modes
of severe weather possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Of
course, this is still seven days out so things could change, but it
will be something to watch headed into next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Quiet conditions expected through the day. Diurnal wind gusts of 20
to 30 kts possible at all terminals this afternoon, with winds
easing this evening. Expect increasing clouds through the evening
hours as a weak disturbance brings a chance of showers late
tonight.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...SF