-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
523
FXUS61 KOKX 010601
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
201 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control much of the weekend. A weak
disturbance will approach late Sunday and move across Sunday
night into Monday morning. High pressure will then take control
of the weather through Wednesday before a cold front approaches
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies remain clear overnight under building high pressure.
Temperatures dip into the low-50s to low-60s for most, warmer
than last night, under light NW flow. Dry conditions prevail
everywhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
Surface high pressure centers itself over the area on Saturday
with a ridge aloft. Temperatures continue to warm into the
low/mid-80s for most about 5-10 degrees above average. Mostly
sunny skies stay in place Saturday. A sea breeze may be more
likely on Saturday due to the warmer temperatures, leading to
temperatures dropping after its passage in the mid-late
afternoon for many locations near the coast.

As the ridge gradually weakens aloft and high pressure weakens in
response to an approaching shortwave, cloud cover may increase very
late into overnight Saturday. Ahead of the approaching shortwave,
clouds will be mid-high level. Lows may not be affected much by them
on Saturday night with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be offshore on Sunday, while the upper ridge
flattens Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave moves across the
area. The surface reflection shows weak low pressure passing just
south of the forecast area. There is a chance of showers with this
system, but there is also evidence of mid level capping. The 12Z
ECMWF is still one of the more aggressive solutions with a
convective complex dropping from NW to SE across the forecast area.
Not quite buying into that solution at this time.

Heights then build with upper ridging reestablishing itself through
midweek with surface high pressure just off the Northeast coast. A
frontal system then approaches for the end of the week as a northern
stream upper vortex carves out a trough across the Great Lakes and
into the Northeast. There are some timing differences in the
guidance as can be expected this far out in time. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast from Wednesday night
into Thursday, with Thursday looking like the wetter of the days.

While pretty much ran with the NBM for temperatures, noted in the
box and whisker plots that the deterministic is generally running at
the 25th percentile or even lower, especially through Tuesday. Yet,
there are some large spreads between the 25th and 75th, with the
median warmer in the 80s for most locations. However, having trouble
going closer to the median as there is often ridging aloft with a
subsidence inversion and onshore S/SE flow. The warmest day at this
time looks to be Sunday, with closer to normal temperatures for the
second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to move into the region during the TAF
period, with its center south of the area late Saturday into
Saturday night.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind speeds are
expected to be mainly near or less than 10 kts much of the TAF
period. Wind direction will initially be NW, or more variable going
into early Saturday with winds becoming more W-SW with some coastal
terminals expected to a sea breeze for afternoon into early evening.

There is uncertainty with the timing of the sea breeze, making for a
lower confidence wind direction forecast Saturday. KJFK, KLGA, KISP
and KGON have highest chances of getting sea breezes. KBDR, KHPN,
KEWR and KTEB have low chances of getting sea breezes.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible for wind direction Saturday afternoon
depending on the timing of the sea breeze. Sea breeze arrival
time could be off by 1 to 2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday Night-Sunday Night: VFR through the day Sunday. MVFR or
lower possible in showers Sunday night.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. MVFR or lower possible late in the day
into Wednesday night in showers.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through late next week,
with seas on the ocean generally 3 ft or less.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low rip current risk through the weekend due to low
seas on the ocean and winds mainly 10 kt or less.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DW
NEAR TERM...JP/BR/DR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JM/JP
MARINE...BR/DW
HYDROLOGY...BR/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...