-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
521
FXUS63 KTOP 310536
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1236 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Locally heavy rainfall may lead to flooding and flash flooding
  tonight.

- Off and on rain chances remain in the forecast through Tuesday
mostly with nocturnal convection working east into the area.

- A warm up may occur into the end of next work week into next
weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Locally heavy rainfall from thunderstorms overnight is the main
concern across northeast and east central Kansas. Rainfall rates
of up to 1.5 inches per hour are likely. Theta-e axis extends
north to south across eastern Kansas. A MCV continues to slowly
move across eastern Kansas with locally heavy rainfall noted
to the north and east of the circulation. Some areas of Brown
County have already exceeded 3 inches of rain with localized
flooding as well. The threat for heavy rainfall will gradually
diminish later tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A deep positively tilted trough is in place through the New England
region into the mid-Atlantic states. A sharp ridge is in place over
the western Great Lakes into the Hudson Bay region with a neutral to
slightly negatively tilted trough over central Canada into the
northern Rockies. The Westerlies remain along a northerly track off
into the northern Pacific. Subtropical energy is well south of the
region. The Central Plains is under the influence of weak quasi-
zonal flow in between the Westerlies and subtropical influences.
Southerly to southeasterly flow is set up across the area near the
surface on the western flank of a broad surface ridge expanding from
the Upper MS Valley into the Tennessee Valley region. A weak MCV
paired with a weak and very subtle shortwave aloft continues to work
across the forecast area at this hour. A couple more fairly
disorganized convective systems remain south of the area with
another north into eastern Nebraska which is also fairly
disorganized a this hour but closer to the southeastern flank of
better forcing aloft associated with the base of the western trough
poised to move into the northern Plains.

This afternoon, expect a the window for a marginally severe storm to
last through the afternoon into early this evening as weak upper
level energy transitions across the area. A few instances of
lightning have been more common at least over the past hour or so.
Deeper moisture is to the south of the area with upper 60 dewpoints
into OK/TX region. Shear profiles are generally weak and
disorganized across the area. With a few breaks in the clouds today,
could still see enough instability become realized for a couple of
updrafts to go severe with mostly a hail threat into early this
evening. Overall PWATs are lower than one would likely need to see
rainfall rates intense enough to pose a flooding concern.
Additionally, pulse type storms are what is expected in this type of
environment. With flash flood guidance generally close to 2-3 inches
from 1-3hrs across the area, not expecting any widespread concerns
overall even through brief heavy downpours could result.

Most likely time frames for mostly nocturnal type storms to move
into the area from the west comes into Saturday night and Sunday
morning. However, it appears that any line or complex of storms may
be moving into a generally less favorable environment both shear and
instability wise. Looking for any convection to lose momentum into
north central and parts of northeastern KS. Right now a couple more
time frames appear to focus on Monday morning and again into Tuesday
night when storms may stand a better chance at moving into the area
with northerly flow energy digging down into the area slightly. A
deeper and better organized system is forecast to enter the northern
Plains for the late Tuesday period. This may provide the best
opportunity to see associated baroclinicity along a developing cold
front that could move into the area and provide chances for more
active weather across the area.

Late into the week, a broader ridge is forecast to set up over the
west. However, there is larger spread amongst cluster analysis and
deterministic solutions at this time. Should such a ridge become
established it could provide an opportunity for typically June heat
to set up across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Increasing low level moisture from widespread SHRA with a few
embedded TSRA anticipated to spread north towards KTOP/KFOE aft
06Z, lowering cigs to IFR overnight. Coverage of SHRA over KMHK
is more uncertain based on short term models so have kept cigs
at low end MVFR. Slow moving SHRA exits northward between
11Z-15Z. Conditions return to MVFR for much of the daytime
period. There may be a break in activity before scattered SHRA
with isolated TSRA redevelops aft 21Z. Coverage is of question
so opted to not add to the TAF.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...53
DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto