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312
FXUS61 KAKQ 281349
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
949 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region
through late week, though some isolated late day showers or
storms will be possible over far northern portions of our area
today and tomorrow. Cooler, less humid conditions are expected
for Thursday through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 950 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Quieter weather today than the past few. An isolated shower or
  storm is possible over far northern portions of the area.

Latest analysis reveals ~992m sfc low pressure over western
Quebec, with the associated sfc cold front extending south
across the eastern seaboard into the deep south. As of this
writing, the surface front has reached the Albemarle Sound.
Aloft, a longwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to
slowly translate east, as downstream upper ridging builds across
the intermountain west into the Canadian Rockies.

The upper trough slowly pushes east, with the lead shortwave
sliding just north of the region along and just south of the
Mason-Dixon line. Some weak shortwave energy associated with the
system does push across the lower mid-Atlantic, and thus a few
passing/isolated showers can`t be entirely ruled out over our
far northern tier of counties north/northeast of Richmond metro
region this afternoon. A 20% PoP has been maintained over north
central VA and the VA northern neck...and also along OBX
Currituck for a stray shower or storm along the afternoon
seabreeze. Otherwise, a pleasant and mainly dry day is expected
for much of the region under a partly to mostly sunny sky.
Thicknesses remain similar to those of yesterday, so despite the
slightly lower dewpoints, still expecting a seasonably warm day
with highs in the mid 80s inland, upper 70s to low 80s along
the coast.

Cooler, dry and comfortable tonight with lows in the mid 50s
well inland, upper 50s to low 60s for most.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms possible across the north once
  again on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening.

- Cooler and more comfortable Thursday.

The upper low will begin to eject northeast on Wednesday, as
upper ridging builds east across the plains. However, this will
send a potent shortwave and secondary cold front SE from the
Ohio Valley toward our area. The upper disturbance looks to
slide across northern portions of the commonwealth toward the
Delmarva Wed evening, with the associated secondary cold front
crossing the area Wed night. This likely portends increasing
cloud cover for our area through Wed afternoon, and should bring
another (more numerous) round of convection Wed afternoon. Once
again, areal coverage will be highest across our northern and
northeastern counties, or mainly N and E of the I-64 corridor.
Cooler temps aloft will allow for the development of some modest
instability (< 500 J/kg of MLCAPE) by the afternoon as bulk
shear and mid- level lapse rates tick up slightly. So while
widespread severe is not anticipated, a few thunderstorms (and
potentially even a stronger storm or two) are certainly
possible. Will keep PoPs in the 30-40% range north of I-64, with
little or no rain chances south of RIC metro to Hampton
Roads/NE NC. Look for a gradually clearing sky Wed night into
Thursday morning, and a cooler, more comfortable day follows
for Thursday.

Highs Wednesday in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Cooler Wednesday
night with lows in the 50s for most of the area, and near
60/lower 60s for the far SE. Highs Thursday generally in the
70s and dewpoints only in the upper 40s to lower 50s under a
mostly sunny sky.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Increasing clouds and perhaps a shower or two along the coast
  Thursday night. Otherwise, mainly dry for the late week
  period.

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the week, with warming
  temperatures returning for Sunday into early next week.

The upper trough over New England digs back south on Thursday
night, in response to another strong shortwave diving out of
the interior northeast/eastern Great Lakes. 00z/28 GFS still
seems intent on lifting a weak frontal wave along a coastal
trough along the Carolina coast, and the ECMWF has trended in
this direction for the time being. Given the dry airmass/meager
PVA, capped PoP at 20% along the SE coast Thu night into Friday.
Either way, does appear that cloud cover increases once again
Thu afternoon into Thu night. However, with the drier air and
lower heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew
points in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more
comfortable.

Behind this system, high pressure builds down from the Great
Lakes to end the week and start the weekend on a dry and
comfortable note weatherwise. High temps should begin to inch
back up some, in response to upper ridging finally beginning to
build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows through the
extended will be in the 50s to near 60 at the immediate coast. A
few upper 40s are possible Thursday and Friday night across the
far NW. Dry conditions continue into the weekend, but cannot
rule out a late day/evening stray shower or storm on Sunday and
Monday, as high pressure begins to shift offshore. Temperatures
this weekend into early next week likely trend upward closer to
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions prevail across area terminals in the wake of a
cold frontal passage, which will push offshore by mid to late
morning. Remaining mainly dry/VFR across the terminals today.
There is the small chance for some passing showers possible
mainly N of KRIC/W of KSBY this aftn, with CAMs trending toward
later afternoon/early evening timing, with QPF remaining quite
low/sparse. W/NW winds will average around 10 kt, with light
afternoon seabreeze impacting coastal terminals from PHF/ORF to
ECG. Again, an isolated shower possible along the seabreeze
circulation, but chances are low enough to hold out mention for
now.

Outlook: Relatively quiet flying conditions persist for the Tue
night/Wed morning period, as high pressure builds to the west
and an upper level trough with weak sfc low pressure passes by
to the north Wed afternoon and night. A few more scattered
showers and isolated t-storms are possible Wed aftn, mainly
over northern portions of the FA. Remaining predominately VFR,
but brief flight restrictions are possible in any isolated
convection Wed aftn at RIC/SBY. Dry/VFR then looks to prevail
areawide for the late week period into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Relatively benign marine conditions are expected through the week.

Low pressure was located across W Quebec early this morning with a
cold front extending S/SW through the Mid Atlantic. The cold front
will move E across the local waters this morning before stalling
with winds transitioning from SW 10-15 kt to W/NW ~10 kt by around
sunrise. Winds then become N 5-10 kt late this morning, becoming
onshore early this afternoon, before becoming S late. The stationary
front pushes tonight with winds again becoming NW at night and
onshore during the day Wed. A reinforcing cold front pushes through
late Wed into Wed night with a brief NW/NNW surge of 14-17 kt with a
few gusts to 20 kt arriving late Wed night into early Thu morning.
Cannot rule out a low-end SCA for this timeframe if the surge trends
stronger, however, models are not very excited about it at the
moment (NBM has generally <20% chance for 18 kt sustained winds and
40-50% chance for 18 kt gusts by early Thu morning). High pressure
builds in late this week with winds generally NW/N 10-15 kt Thu and
Fri. Once again, cannot rule out low-end SCA conditions Fri as N
winds increase to 15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt (NBM has generally
10-30% chance for 18 kt sustained winds and 70+% chance for 18 kt
gusts Fri). Winds remain generally light and variable this weekend
into early next week as high pressure gradually moves E
across the local waters and offshore.

Waves of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft continue through the week apart
from a brief increase in waves to 2-3 ft Thu and Fri. The rip
current risk remains low today and Wednesday given mainly 2 ft
nearshore breaking waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     MDZ021>023.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM/AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...RMM