-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
744
FXUS62 KILM 280535
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
135 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will enhance thunderstorms through
this evening. Mostly dry weather is expected to commence from
Tuesday onward as the front pushes offshore after stalling
through mid-week. Relatively cool and dry high pressure should
remain in control late week going into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Strong to severe thunderstorms should move across the Carolinas
into this evening. SPC has area outlined in slight risk (level
2 of 5). Greatest threat would be strong winds and hail, but can
not rule out a tornado. Earlier convection cleared the coast
with a break in convection this afternoon, but atmosphere
remains unstable with very warm and moist conditions. Gusty S-SW
will continue into early eve in tightened gradient ahead of an
approaching cold front. Looking at convective parameters and
model soundings, looks like greatest potential for strong to
severe convection will be into this evening, probably 7p to
midnight. Pcp water increases at this time up to 2 inches,
especially across SC and another perturbation in the mid- levels
should move through at this time which should also help to
enhance the convection. The warm and humid airmass will keep
temps up around 70 for lows.

The cold front should move across the forecast area through
Tues morning but should get hung up near the coast as sea breeze
develops. This should provide additional convergence with the
westerly flow behind the front meeting the onshore flow from the
sea breeze. Therefore expect some convection along the coast
Tues aftn before front exits the coast later in the day.
Downslope flow should help push temps up around 90 again,
especially inland as drier air makes its way in behind front,
but afternoon convection closer to the coast should affect the
temps a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warm weather in store for Tuesday night through
Wednesday night as stalled front near the coast slowly shifts
further offshore. Lows mid 60s Tuesday night. Weaker downslope
flow Wednesday, but with sunny skies and late May sunshine will
again push highs into upper 80s. A second, dry front is progged
to move across the area from the northwest Wednesday night
ushering in drier and slightly cooler air behind it. Lows in the
lower 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Summertime CAA kicks in behind the front for Thursday through
the end of the week. Temps drop to below normal for Thursday
through Saturday along with dewpoints in the low 50s, possibly
upper 40s in the afternoon. GFS continues to show a wave, albeit
weaker, moving up the coast Thursday afternoon, though at this
point looks better for some increased upper clouds versus any
precipitation. Guidance has come into better agreement of an
upper trough digging down across the Mid-Atlantic late week,
moving across the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. Given
meager moisture availability, and bulk of PVA north of the area,
have kept pops out of the forecast. Strong mid level ridge
looks to build over the area late Friday through the weekend,
with surface high pressure overhead to start the weekend before
shifting offshore. Slow warming trend forecasted for next
weekend, with strength of mid ridge and timing of return flow
around offshore high pressure dictating the forecast for early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Widespread VFR away from the coast the next 24 hours. Coastal
terminals will see ongoing VFR conditions continue into the
morning. Scattered SHRA/TSRA currently crossing Georgetown
county will remain south and east of MYR/CRE/ILM through 12Z and
are likely to move a little farther south and east as the slow
moving cold front drops into the area around dawn. Confidence
decreases with respect to location of short term MVFR/IFR
related to any TSRA that develops along the stalled front midday
through late afternoon. Scattered coverage at best with storms
generally from the NC/SC border north along the immediate coast.
Have prob 30 for ILM/CRE but thinking MYR is just south of the
best conditions. Any TSRA that does develop will diminish late
afternoon with VFR at all coastal sites for the evening.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...A cold front approaching from the west
tonight into Tues will maintain a tightened gradient flow with
gusty SW winds up to 25 kts. The cold front should reach near
the coast by mid-morning on Tues but should get hung up near the
coast as sea breeze develops and pushes against it. The
boundary should clear the coast later on Tues with winds
shifting to the west behind it. The southerly push will maintain
seas 3 to 4 ft, with occasional 5 footers possible especially
outer waters. A slightly longer minimal southeast swell around 8
seconds will mix in.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Relatively benign marine
conditions expected Tuesday night through the end of the week
and into next weekend. Front stalled near the coast Tuesday
night will slowly move further offshore Wednesday, before a
second, dry front pushes through Wednesday night. Winds
generally 10 kts or less through Thursday night, alternating
between southwesterly and northwesterly. North-northeast winds
develop Friday into Saturday as high pressure builds inland.
Seas around 2 feet Tuesday night through Saturday, with a window
of 1-2 ft seas Thursday into Friday, mix of weakening S wind
wave, a weak wind chop, and a 1-2 ft SE swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...III
MARINE...RGZ/VAO