496
FXUS65 KABQ 262346 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Pleasant warm weather with a light breeze is expected for Memorial
Day tomorrow. Storm chances return to eastern New Mexico Tuesday and
will likely stick around through the end of the week. A few storms
may be strong to severe in the east Tuesday afternoon and later in
the week as well. Gusty east canyon winds are also possible in east
Albuquerque Tuesday night. Temperatures will be slightly above
seasonal averages throughout the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

A departing upper level trough has kept breezy to locally strong
northwest winds over the region today. These winds will diminish
quickly after sunset, even along the east slopes of the central mt
chain and nearby highlands. A weak surface boundary will move to the
southwest across eastern NM tonight as a 1012mb surface high moves
down the Front Range. Other than a subtle northeast wind shift and
slightly higher humidity, there will be very little impact to the
sensible weather.

Flow aloft will back from northwest to west thru Monday as a weak
shortwave ridge moves quickly northeast across the Great Basin.
Surface winds will trend even lighter on Monday. However, a large
dry intrusion arriving with the upper ridge will keep it very dry
with humidity below 10% in many areas. The exception may be closer
to the CO border where a weak mid level speed max interacts with
sufficient mid level moisture to allow for a few high-based gusty
showers and sprinkles by late day.

The shortwave ridge will break down quickly Monday night with flow
aloft becoming west to southwest over NM. A subtle northeast wind is
expected to move into northeast NM Monday evening as a weak cold
front approaching from southeast CO becomes stationary over the
area. Meanwhile, moist low level return flow will be spreading west
into east-central and northeast NM thru Monday night. A few more
showers may develop over far northeast NM in this area of improving
low level convergence and deepening moisture. Some low clouds are
even possible by daybreak Tuesday over far eastern NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Convectively driven moist easterly flow from storms over TX will
likely continue in eastern NM through early Tuesday, forcing a
moisture boundary to stall out somewhere in eastern NM. The
amplified ridge directly overhead will also help to keep dry
westerlies from pushing this moisture back to the east during the
afternoon. While instability will be high across far eastern NM, low
clouds may inhibit convection from developing here and instead force
it to develop further west closer to the central mountain chain
along the stalled boundary. If discrete cells are able to develop
across the northeast or east-central plains, they will likely become
strong to severe. 0-6 km bulk shear around 30kts looks marginal for
supercells and very steep mid-level lapse rates favor strong pulsy
updrafts. Convective outflows will likely generate at least a weak
east canyon wind in eastern Albuquerque Tuesday night.

Tuesday also looks like the warmest day of the week given the
aformentioned amplified ridge overhead. The ridge will begin to
shift east on Wednesday, but westerly flow should remain weak enough
for more convection in eastern NM. There`s a chance the ridge will
be too strong that it suppresses convection in the absence of strong
forcing, but a trailing shortwave could help to counteract that.
Another east wind could impact east Albuquerque Wednesday night,
depending on convective activity in the east. Shower and storm
chances will stick around through the end of the week in eastern NM.
Troughing over the Intermountain West could push moisture to the
east later in the week, but there is uncertainty on whether this
feature will be deep enough to bring strong westerlies into New
Mexico. Temperatures will hover near to a few degrees above average
mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 544 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Gusty wly to nwly winds will persist through the early evening,
tapering off aft sunset. Potential exists for reduced cigs/vsbys
due to FU from nearby wildfires once again during the TAF period,
particularly near KSRR and KROW. Less wind expected tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds have trended lighter over the region today. However, northwest
winds have been strong with near-critical RH to produce localized
critical fire weather over the Central Highlands today, mainly in
the area from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners and Vaughn. Winds
will taper off quickly this evening. Overnight humidity recovery
will still be poor to fair in most areas however winds will be much
lighter than last night. Monday will also be very dry again but with
even lighter winds than today.

A weak boundary will move southwest across eastern NM Monday night
with significantly better humidity recovery westward to the Pecos
Valley. This moisture will allow for greater coverage of showers and
storms over eastern NM beginning Tuesday. Some of this moisture may
even make it to the central mt chain with some high-based dry storms
possible, mainly in the Sangre de Cristo Mts. A few storms closer to
the TX border may become strong to severe with wetting rainfall.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  84  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  37  80  37  84 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  41  79  45  82 /   0   0   0   5
Gallup..........................  37  83  40  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  41  79  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  41  84  41  85 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  42  81  44  83 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  49  83  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  80  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  36  86  40  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  49  89  55  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  73  39  77 /   0   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  50  78  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  47  79  49  80 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  38  73  44  75 /   0   0   0  20
Red River.......................  35  69  38  71 /   0   5   0  40
Angel Fire......................  34  72  35  72 /   0   0   0  40
Taos............................  38  79  42  81 /   0   0   0  20
Mora............................  46  76  44  77 /   0   0   0  30
Espanola........................  48  85  49  88 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  48  80  52  83 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  47  84  50  86 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  54  87  55  90 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  53  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  53  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  49  89  50  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  53  88  54  91 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  50  89  50  91 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  50  89  54  92 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  50  89  50  91 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  53  87  55  90 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  56  92  55  95 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  48  78  52  81 /   0   0   0   5
Tijeras.........................  49  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   5
Edgewood........................  48  83  47  85 /   0   0   0   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  45  84  43  86 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  47  80  47  80 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  48  82  48  84 /   0   0   0   5
Gran Quivira....................  46  83  48  84 /   0   0   0   5
Carrizozo.......................  54  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   5
Ruidoso.........................  52  81  53  82 /   0   0   0   5
Capulin.........................  44  76  46  77 /   0   5   5  50
Raton...........................  44  81  46  81 /   0   5   0  40
Springer........................  45  82  47  82 /   0   0   0  30
Las Vegas.......................  46  80  47  79 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  49  84  54  81 /   0   0  10  30
Roy.............................  47  82  52  81 /   0   0   5  30
Conchas.........................  53  89  56  89 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  55  87  53  86 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  52  90  56  86 /   0   0   0  20
Clovis..........................  55  94  59  91 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  53  95  58  96 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  54  91  55  93 /   0   0   0  10
Roswell.........................  61  98  60 101 /   0   0   0  10
Picacho.........................  56  91  56  93 /   0   0   0   5
Elk.............................  52  91  53  92 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...12