Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
815 FXUS61 KAKQ 311546 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1146 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in today through Saturday with cool and dry conditions expected. Warmer weather returns next week with the potential for scattered, mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1130 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Pleasantly cool and dry today as high pressure builds in. The latest WX analysis indicates ~1028 mb sfc high pressure centered across the upper OH Valley. Aloft, a shortwave trough has pushed offshore of the SE VA/NC coast with an upper level ridge across the TN/lower OH Valley. A mainly sunny sky prevails (just some SCT CU over the SE), with very low humidity for the last day of May. Expect highs to average in the mid 70s area-wide this aftn with dew pts as low as the upper 30s to lower 40s as the sfc high to our NW continues to build SE into the region. Clear tonight as the sfc high settles overhead, allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Lows tonight range from the mid-upper 40s inland (lower 50s for urban areas) and in the 50s closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Near normal temperatures this weekend. - There is a chance for showers and storms late Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. High pressure moves offshore Sat with winds becoming S/SSW. This will allow for temps to rise back into the lower 80s on Sat and Sun with mid 80s along the coast Sun. Dry and pleasant weather continues Sat with dewpoints in the mid 40s to lower 50s. A shortwave and surface low approach the area Sun into Sun night with a chance for some scattered showers and storms, especially Sunday night. However, models are in disagreement with the Euro keeping most of the precip N whereas the GFS/NAM keep most of the precip over the local area. CONSALL also supports the idea of chance PoPs across the area. As such, have gone with a blend of CONSALL and NBM (which seems too low) in order to get chance PoPs across most of the area Sun night (30-40% PoPs). That being said, most of the day Sun should be dry apart from isolated showers/storms in the Piedmont. Lows in the mid- upper 50s W to the lower 60s E Sat night and lower 60s W to the mid- upper 60s E Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: - Unsettled weather persists through the week with multiple chances for showers and storms. - A warmup is expected with above normal temperatures. Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek before a trough takes it`s place by late week. As this pattern change occurs, models show the potential for multiple shortwaves moving through the area. Therefore, daily chances for showers/storms exists. That being said, generally low PoPs are expected Mon/Tue (<30%) with higher chances Wed-Fri (30-50%). Temps will also rebound with highs in the mid 80s Mon, mid-upper 80s Tue, low-mid 80s Wed, upper 80s Thu, and mid-upper 80s Fri. Lows in the 60s continue through the week with most nights in the mid-upper 60s. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 635 AM EDT Friday... A shortwave trough moves offshore this morning as high pressure builds. Clouds have moved offshore with sunny skies expected to continue through the day (apart from a few high- based CU near the coast). N winds 5-10 kt this morning increase to ~10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt from late morning into the afternoon. High pressure centers over the area tonight with calm winds and clear skies expected. High pressure slides offshore Sunday. Primarily dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail Sat through Tue. The only exception is a slight chc of showers/tstms Sun as a weakening system tracks N of the area. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EDT Friday... Key Messages: -Rip current risk for the southern beaches today has been upgraded to moderate. It is expected to return to low for all local coastal waters this weekend. -A brief northerly surge of 15 to 20 knots is expected today as high pressure builds in from the northwest. High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest today, creating a weak surge of northerly winds across the waters during the daytime hours. As of this writing, hi-res guidance has sustained winds remaining around 16-19kt, with wind probs stay at or below 20% for sustained 18kt winds at all sites. Decided to not issue a SCA due to it being such a borderline event. Will continue to monitor for any changes. Otherwise, expect seas of 2-3ft north with 3-4ft seas across the south today. Waves in the Bay will be 2-3ft, becoming 1- 2ft later this evening as the wind subsides. Winds will become west/northwesterly briefly tonight into early Saturday, then turn south/southeasterly during the afternoon. Seas will remain around 2- 3ft for the weekend. Next chance of rain looks to come later Sunday into Monday, with daily chances potentially sticking around after that. The rip current risk for the southern beaches has been upgraded to a moderate risk due to a northerly surge of wind expected to bring waves up to 3ft nearshore. The risk should remain low for the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...RMM LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...RMM MARINE...JKP