654
FXUS61 KAKQ 181914
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
314 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dreary conditions across the area today with the
potential for a few thunderstorms in NC. The widespread rain
will shift south tonight into Sunday, though at least light rain
or drizzle will still be possible. Dry weather returns Monday,
with a warming trend leading to a more summerlike pattern by the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 310 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

-Cool and dreary this evening with overcast skies and spotty
 light showers

-Showers and a thunderstorm or two expected in NC counties this
 evening

Cool and dreary conditions are ongoing across the forecast area this
afternoon. Latest analysis indicates a boundary is situated just to
the south of the area with cool high pressure ridging into the Mid-
Atlantic from Atlantic Canada. Aloft, SW flow is in place with a
trough/low pressure to the W and a shortwave traveling over the
area. Very light echos on radar and obs indicate that drizzle/light
showers are ongoing across eastern portions of the area. Overcast
skies, rain, and the onshore flow have kept temps well below normal
today. Afternoon obs show temps in the low 60s with a couple of
sites even in the upper 50s. The extreme southern portion of the
area is slightly warmer, with temps in the mid-upper 60s.

Redevelopment of showers and perhaps isolated rumbles of thunder are
expected this afternoon in NC as the trough shifts east and a
shortwave moves over the area. However, initiation of showers may
prove difficult given the rain this morning and cool, misty
conditions this afternoon. Indeed, the trend of high-res guidance
today has been to keep the vast majority of precip to the south.
Therefore, have tightened up PoPs to keep anything above 55% to the
extreme southern edge. If thunderstorms manage to develop, there
is a marginal risk for isolated severe wind. Showers gradually
diminish overnight, lingering longest in the far SE. Overcast
skies continue tonight and lows will be in the upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Low chance for showers across SE VA and NE NC Sunday, with dry
  weather elsewhere. High temperatures will remain below normal,
  though may warm into the 70s for northern portions of the
  area.

- Partly to mostly cloudy skies and below normal temperatures
  Monday across coastal areas. Near-normal temperatures
  expected well inland.

Drying out Sunday as weak low pressure gradually moves ESE off the
Carolina coast. There may be quite a difference in weather Sunday
across the area as drier air attempts to filter into from the north
and the cooler maritime airmass persists across the SE and along the
coast. Thus, we may see some clearing for northern portions of the
area away from the immediate coast (especially in the later aftn
hrs). In response to this potential, the guidance is trending up
with temps across this area. Given looming uncertainty and the fact
that these airmasses are sometimes hard to scour out, will blend the
previous forecast`s highs w/ the NBM, which yields temps in the low
70s across the N (a couple degrees below NBM). However, temps could
certainly be warmer w/ 75th percentile highs approaching the mid
70s. Highs likely to stay in the 60s in SE VA/NE NC and along the
Atlantic coast (where it also remains breezy). PoPs also continue to
trend down, with just slight chc for the srn half of the area
(30% along the Albemarle Sound). Lows Sun night in the mid 50s.

Low pressure gradually shifts offshore Monday, though an additional
low may develop S of the upper feature offshore. High pressure also
nudges south into the Mid-Atlantic. NE flow is still expected
(breeziest across southern coastal areas), keeping temperatures
below normal across the SE, and slight below normal elsewhere. The
low levels dry out enough well inland, allowing temperatures to warm
into the mid-upper 70s. Upper 60s are expected along the coast. The
majority of the area stays dry with PoPs below 20% areawide. Lows
Mon night in the 50s with some upper 40s possible well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- A substantial warming trend is expected Tuesday through
  Thursday with mainly dry weather.

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon and again
  Friday afternoon, with some stronger storms possible.

Low pressure gets pushed offshore rather quickly Mon night,
with upper level ridging moving in by Tue. As such, much warmer
temps are expected midweek, with highs Tue in the upper
70s/lower 80s inland and in the low-mid 70s at the coast. The
warming trend continues Wed into Thu with mid/upper 80s making a
comeback. An isolated shower is possible across the NW Wed
night w/ a shortwave sliding through the ern Great Lakes.
However, vast majority of the moisture stays well to our NW.
There is decent agreement among the global models that a cold
front will cross the area in the later Thursday/early Friday
timeframe. Will have a chc of showers and storms over most of
the area. CAPE fields from the GFS/ECMWF show impressive
instability so could see some stronger storms. A little cooler
behind the front to end the week, though will need to watch
another disturbance ejecting out of the Plains Friday into
Saturday. Depending on the track of the sfc feature, will again
need to monitor for some stronger storms. Overnight lows will be
in the 50s Tue night and 60s for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Degraded flight conditions continue this afternoon and look to
prevail for the 18z TAF period. Latest obs indicate that most
terminals are in IFR. MVFR at SBY likely continue through the
evening, then CIGs will drop below 1kft late tonight. While
heavier rain ended earlier today, light showers/drizzle
continues across eastern portions of the area, which may degrade
vsby at times. ECG could see heavier showers this afternoon and
perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, but the majority of the
activity looks to stay to south of the forecast area. E winds
become NE overnight. May be gusty at times near the coast.

Outlook: Conditions improve through the day Sun with the
forecast now looking mainly dry, though BKN-OVC skies are slow
to scatter out. Dry conditions and scattered cloud cover then
expected through mid- week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Increasing NE wind and seas for the weekend. Small craft
  advisories will go into effect for southern portions of the
  marine area later tonight.

Weak high pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
early this morning, with weak low pressure centered well inland and
slowly approaching from the W. The wind in mainly E to NE at 5-10kt
with seas 3-4ft. Low pressure will track ESE across NC today and
become more organized off the Carolina coast tonight into Sunday,
before very slowly pulling away from the coast through Monday.
Meanwhile, high pressure slowly builds in from the N. The wind is
expected to become E 10-15kt today, and then become NE by tonight
into Sunday ranging from 10-15kt N to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt S.
Seas build to 4-5ft N to 5-6ft S (potentially 6-8ft if the wind
reaches 20-25kt). SCAs will go into effect later tonight from Cape
Charles S for the ocean, the mouth of the Bay, and the Currituck
Sound. High pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday
into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the Southeast coast.
High pressure slides offshore later in the week with the wind
becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas gradually subside to 3-4ft
by Monday night/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by midweek.

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for today, with moderate
for the northern beaches Sunday, and high for the southern beaches
due to increasing NE flow and building seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Flood Warnings remain in effect for Nottoway River near Stony
Creek for minor flooding. Lawrenceville crested last night and
has now fallen below flood stage. Stony Creek remains in flood
and is expected to crest tonight. See FLSAKQ for additional
information.

Latest forecasts indicate rainfall amounts from today will lead
to a secondary rise in water level late in the weekend/early
next week, but that most places stay just below Minor Flood
thresholds. Will still need to monitor as a slight over-
performance would lead to additional flooding.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Tidal anomalies have dropped a few tenths of a foot across the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal Potomac and Rappahannock Rivers
in the wake of a modest ebb tide. Therefore, nuisance to minor
tidal flooding is largely not expected during the next high tide
cycle later this morning to mid-afternoon. However,
astronomical high tides will gradually increase over the next
several days, and this combined with increasing onshore flow
will result in nuisance to minor tidal flooding later this
weekend into early next week, particularly for the middle
Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River and
southern shore of the tidal Potomac.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM EDT Monday for
     ANZ634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 7 PM EDT Monday for
     ANZ656-658.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB/SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...LKB/SW
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...