294
FXUS61 KALY 280747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, less humid air will be moving into
the region today. However, an approaching upper level disturbance
will return the threat for scattered showers to the region again for
late today, with a chance continuing into Wednesday and Thursday as
well. Behind this departing system, comfortable and dry weather is
expected for much of the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 347 AM EDT...Surface cold front is slowly moving across
the region from west to east. As seen in surface observations
across western and central NY, the front will allow winds to
switch from the south to the west-southwest and allow for drier
air and lowering dewpoints to move into the region. The front
has already crossed western parts of the forecast area and is
starting to approach the Capital and Saratoga Regions and Hudson
Valley.

Although activity has diminish considerably, there still
continue to be a few light showers and sprinkles associated with
the frontal boundary. A quick shower can`t be ruled out over the
next few hours across the Capital Region and possibly the
Taconics, but most of these showers have been falling apart as
they head eastward.  While skies are mostly cloudy for much of
the region, there should be some clearing behind the front for
the late night hours and into the first part of the morning.
With winds still fairly weak and moisture levels high due to the
recent rainfall, some patchy fog could form in areas that see
clearing before the daybreak and when drier air moves into the
region. Otherwise, skies will become partly cloudy towards
daybreak for much of the area.

During the morning hours, it should be fairly quiet across the
region with a partly to mostly sunny sky. Despite some cold
advection that will be ongoing behind the front, it will still
be warm aloft (850 hpa around +8 to +12 C) and temps will be
starting out fairly mild. As a result, temps should warm up
quickly with the partial sunshine and highs should reach the mid
to upper 70s in many valley areas by the afternoon hours.

Even though the day will start off dry, there will be some
scattered showers and possible t-storms developing by the
afternoon and early evening hours, as a large upper level trough
starts to approach from the west. Skies will become partly to
mostly cloudy for late in the day and there will be some
scattered showers around. Most of the precip should be short-
lived and brief, but a quick downpour will be possible for late
in the day. With the lowering dewpoints and limited instability,
no severe storms are expected, but a rumble of thunder can`t be
ruled out within the heaviest showers. Still, most areas won`t
see much precip today and the best chance will be for areas
north and west of the Capital Region.

In addition, the decent mixing and lingering pressure gradient
will allow for another breezy day. Westerly winds may gusts as
high as 25 mph during the afternoon hours, especially within the
Mohawk Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the upper level trough overhead, there will be a continued
threat for a few passing showers for tonight, although coverage
will probably decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Still,
the moist cyclonic flow will allow for plenty of clouds,
especially in the high terrain areas and a few light showers
(mainly northern areas). Temps will generally be in the 50s for
tonight.

On Wednesday, another disturbance rotating around the upper
level trough will continue to allow for more diurnally-forced
showers and possible t-storms. Based on the expected track of
this upper level feature, southern areas will have the highest
coverage of precip (with areas probably south of the area even
more likely to see wet weather on Wednesday). Will continue to
mention a chance for a shower on Wednesday. There may just
enough instability for a rumble of thunder again, but it looks
even more isolated than Tuesday, with the best chance probably
south of the area. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy once again. Temps look cooler than recent days due to the
lower heights and cooler temps aloft, so highs will be in the
60s to low 70s across the area. With the upper level trough
still nearby, will keep the threat for a shower into Wednesday
night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Models suggest the upper level trough will remain over the
Northeast on Thursday into Thursday night as well, as another
disturbance rotates southward into the trough out of eastern
Canada. This may cutoff as well, keeping the feature in place
over the area. However, moisture will be more limited, so any
spotty showers for Thursday into Thursday night will be limited
to just southern and eastern areas. Any precip looks very brief
and light and many areas will be staying dry, as some drier air
does try to work its way into the area from the west. Skies will
be partly cloudy on Thursday and mostly clear on Thursday night.
It will continue to be cool thanks to the lower heights in
place, with 60s to low 70s once again on Thursday and mainly
40s on Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level troughing departs eastward by Friday morning, with
narrow but high-amplitude upper ridge and associated subsidence and
surface high pressure expected to build in through the weekend. Dry
weather with mostly sunny skies are therefore expected Friday and
Saturday, while there is lower confidence in the large-scale pattern
for the far side of the weekend and into next week. The most likely
outcome at this lead time will see dry and warm conditions continue
through Sunday and much of Monday before an upper-level shortwave
approaches from the Midwest and Ohio Valley, bringing chances for
rain showers into Tuesday.

Temperatures through the period look to trend upward each day. With
cool northwest low-level flow in place on Friday, temperatures
remain near to below normal, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in
high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, before dipping
to overnight lows in the 40s across the region thanks to efficient
radiative cooling. As ridging builds in, temperatures warm a few
degrees each afternoon, reaching highs on Monday in the 70s in high
terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Overnight lows
similarly trend toward more mild values, with temperatures Monday
night only falling into the 50s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...MVFR/IFR cigs at 500-1500 ft with largely
VFR vsbys are expected to continue through much of the overnight
period. Intermittent reduced vsbys from mist are possible through
12Z Tue, most likely at GFL/POU and particularly toward daybreak as
more robust clearing begins. VFR cigs/vsbys return to ALB/GFL/POU by
12-14Z Tue as sct cloud bases lift to 2-4 kft, and to PSF later in
the morning by 16Z Tue once bkn cigs give way to clearer skies.
Scattered showers return in the afternoon and evening to
ALB/GFL/PSF, but are not expected to affect flying conditions.
Otherwise, sct cloud coverage at 3-5 kft is expected to persist
through the remainder of the period.

South to southwest winds at 10 kt or less tonight will increase out
of the southwest to 10-15 kt by 12-15Z Tue. Gusts to 20 kt are
expected across the region from late morning through the afternoon,
before winds shift out of the west by 22-24Z Tue and speeds diminish
to less than 10 kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard