523
FXUS61 KALY 252358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
758 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance ahead of a warm front will bring
isolated to scattered light showers tonight.  Sunday will be
primarily dry before showers and thunderstorms develop later in the
afternoon and evening mainly south of Albany. Unsettled conditions
continue into the start of the work week as a low pressure system
brings widespread rain to the region. Isolated to scattered showers
will then be possible through midweek before a drier pattern sets in
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
.UPDATE as of 714 pm EDT...Some scattered showers continue
north of a warm front over PA and NJ and tied to a weak mid
level disturbance mainly north and west of the Capital Region.
The lightning has died out with the more stable environment over
the forecast area. We removed thunder from the forecast
tonight. We retooled the PoPs based on the radar and CAMs
trends. We also lower temps quicker over the western Mohawk
Valley/southern Adirondacks into the lower 60s due to wet bulb
cooling. Pcpn amounts have ranged from a trace to less than 5
hundredths in the NYS Mesonet. We also increased the mid and
high clouds tonight.

.PREV DISCUSSION [435 pm EDT]... Beautiful, late May weather
continues this afternoon with high pressure dominant at the
surface and a shortwave ridge axis displaced just to our east
aloft. Plenty of sunshine still exists across the region despite
encroaching high clouds courtesy of convection that has
developed upstream along a surface boundary. As such,
temperatures have risen into the mid/upper 70s to near 80 in
valley areas with low 70s in the Southwest Adirondacks and
Southern Greens. A few showers are approaching Herkimer County
this afternoon, but plenty of dry air present in the low levels
should keep precipitation light.

Throughout the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight,
clouds will increase as the upper ridging deamplifies and
flattens in response to an approaching weak shortwave aloft and
weak low pressure system and wind shift boundary at the surface.
Scattered showers and some embedded rumbles of thunder will be
possible as a result this evening into tonight. Thunder chances
will be more likely before midnight when SBCAPE will generally
be between 300-600 J/kg with limited CIN. But as the evening
goes on and the cap increases in strength, thunder chances
should dwindle significantly. Low temperatures tonight will be
fairly mild with plenty of cloud cover across the region. Values
will be in the mid 50s to low 60s.

Modest height rises occur beginning tomorrow morning with
another shortwave ridge building in across the region and the
aforementioned disturbance shifting east. Clouds are anticipated
to decrease throughout the day as subsidence acts to dry out the
mid and upper levels. Therefore, breaks of sunshine will help to
warm temperatures into the mid/upper 70s to low to possibly mid
80s in valley areas with pockets of low 70s above 1500 ft.

Ridging aloft will remain dominant across the region into
tomorrow afternoon, but another shortwave disturbance associated
with a low pressure system moving into the western Great Lakes
will start to approach from the west. With this surface cyclone
comes an eastward-extending warm front that looks to remain just
to our south. While clouds will begin to increase for areas
south of Albany tomorrow afternoon, conditions should remain
primarily dry outside of some isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Models have seemed to decrease the coverage
of showers and thunderstorms with latest guidance likely due to
the seemingly slower track of the low and upper shortwave.
However, with SBCAPE ranging from 500-1000 J/kg and weak
isentropic lift ahead of its warm front, continue to message
slight chance to chance of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon south and east of Albany. No severe thunderstorms are
expected at this time with an overall lack of shear and strong
forcing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night, any showers and thunderstorms that develop should
generally taper off with the loss of diurnal heating. However,
dry conditions will not prevail for long. As the aforementioned
surface cyclone continues to track north and west toward the
US/Canada border, it will gradually deepen, strengthening
cyclonic flow in its associate upper-level trough. Southwesterly
flow will strengthen and isentropic lift will increase as its
warm front begins to lift northward. Rain is therefore expected
to spread across the region from southwest to northeast,
becoming widespread by Monday afternoon. While this will
generally be a stratiform rain, some embedded rumbles of thunder
are possible with weak instability (~200-500 J/kg) present
across much of the area.

Rain will persist through Monday, beginning to wane by Monday
evening and becoming reduced to scattered showers by Monday
night. Persistent cyclonic flow with southerly winds will ensure
clouds and showers stick around through Tuesday morning.

Low temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid/upper 50s
to low 60s. Highs Monday will be a little cooler than today with
mid/upper 60s to mid 70s. Monday night lows will be in the upper
50s to low 60s with pockets of mid 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Skies begin to clear from south to north as we enter the
system`s dry slot Tuesday afternoon. However, some additional
showers will be possible mainly north and west of Albany
throughout the day Tuesday as the system`s cold front sweeps
through the region. Then, as the low continues to deepen and
sink south through Tuesday night and into Wednesday, another
batch of showers will be brought on by the secondary, back door
cold front that will progress through the region. Some rumbles
of thunder are possible once again within these showers, but
instability generally looks weak so kept only slight chance in
the forecast.

The aforementioned system begins to pull away Thursday
afternoon, yielding height rises across the region as an upper-
level ridge builds eastward from the Midwest. A large surface
high will accompany it, creating dry conditions for Thursday
night through the remainder of the long term period. However, a
newly inflicted cooler airmass will make temperatures feel cool
in comparison to recent days. Highs Thursday will be widely in
the 60s with mid/upper 50s at higher elevations with low 60s to
low 70s expected Friday. Then, things warm up a bit Saturday
with temperatures moderating back to the upper 60s to mid/upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak disturbance north of a warm front over PA/NJ will
increase clouds and bring some isolated to scattered showers to
the TAF sites tonight. We are expecting VFR conditions the next
24 hours ending 00Z/MON for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. Mid and high
clouds will increase with the isolated-scattered showers, as
bases may lower to 4.5-8 kft AGL. The conditions may lower to
close to MVFR with vsybys prior to 08Z/SUN but we have left out
of the TAFs.

The cigs will be sct-bkn 5-7 kft AGL in the morning with mid and
high clouds in the afternoon on Sunday. A few isolated
showers/t-storms may pop up but we have left them out of the
TAF.

The winds will be calm or variable in direction a 5 KT or less
tonight. The winds will be light on Sunday into the afternoon
from the east to southeast at 7 KT or less.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Gant/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Wasula