406
FXUS61 KALY 311857
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring clear and cool conditions tonight,
with fair and warmer conditions for Saturday into Sunday. An
upper level disturbance may bring some clouds, and spotty
showers for areas mainly south of Interstate 90 Sunday afternoon
and night. Warm and humid conditions are expected early next
week, along with little if any rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 3 PM EDT, a mix of sun and patchy clouds across the
region, with temps in the lower/mid 70s within most valley
areas, and 65-70 across higher elevations. West/northwest winds
remain a bit breezy, with some gusts up to 25 mph mainly within
the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region and Berkshires.

Winds should quickly diminish shortly after sunset, and with a
very dry airmass remaining in place, expect temperatures to drop
off rapidly later this evening and overnight. Min temps should
fall into the 40s for most areas, with some upper 30s possible
across portions of the southern Adirondacks, eastern Catskills
and southern VT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
After a chilly start, expect mostly sunny skies Saturday and
mainly clear skies through Saturday evening. Winds should be
less than today, with afternoon high temps reaching the upper
70s to lower 80s in valley areas, and 70-75 across most higher
elevations. Clear/partly cloudy skies Saturday evening should
give way to mostly cloudy skies later at night as high/mid level
clouds increase. Lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The upper level shortwave currently located over the southern
Plains will track toward the region Sunday, however should
weaken considerably upon reaching the upper level confluent flow
across the region. The remnants of this shortwave should allow
for some mid level clouds, and could allow for some afternoon
showers/sprinkles to develop, mainly for areas south of I-90.
Should downstream upper level disturbance across the NW Atlantic
shift farther east and reduce upper level confluent flow across
the region, then impacts from this disturbance may be slightly
greater, and trends will need to be watched. Assuming a more
optimistic outcome, high temperatures should reach the upper 70s
to lower 80s in valleys, and 70-75 across higher elevations,
along with a slight uptick in humidity levels. Sunday night lows
mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest trends suggest lack of larger scale forcing mechanisms
until later next week, when a frontal system and upper level low
approach from the west. So, minimal chances for showers for
Monday through Wednesday, with best chances early Monday
depending on ultimate track of shortwave just south of the
region. Better chances for showers and possible thunderstorms
later Thursday into Friday.

Warm and humid conditions are expected much of next week, with
highs mainly in the 80s in valleys and 70s across higher
elevations for Monday-Tuesday, then mainly 70s to around 80
Wednesday through Friday. Overnight lows generally in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure controlling the weather and the atmosphere is
still drying, through tonight. Chances for fog toward daybreak
Saturday are very small due to the dry air in the region. So,
VFR through Saturday morning with mainly clear sky and VFR
visibilities.

Winds will be northwest at less than 10 Kt at KPOU and KGFL this
afternoon, while 10 to 15 Kt with gusts around 20 Kt at KALB and
KPSF. Winds trend to calm tonight, the become northwest Saturday
morning at less than 10 Kt.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Picard
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...NAS