491
FXUS64 KAMA 021141
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
641 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

It appears one more day of thunderstorm development is in the
offing for the OK and TX Panhandles. Quasi-zonal flow will prevail
today and tonight with another weak upper level shortwave trof
embedded in the overall flow pattern expected to track across the
southern high plains later this afternoon and evening. A surface
dryline is not likely to make much eastward progress today, perhaps
migrating into the far western zones from eastern New Mexico by
mid to late afternoon. After morning showers and thunderstorms
exits the eastern zones or dissipates altogether and low cloud
cover erodes, strong daytime heating should commence. Plenty of
moisture will remain in place. The combination of an unstable
atmosphere and steep lapse rates resulting from anticipated
daytime heating should assist in the development of showers and
thunderstorms just east of the dryline later this afternoon, with
the precipitation moving eastward through the evening hours. Given
favorable parameters, some storms will have the potential to
become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary
hazards. In addition, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
since some shear will be present. The threat for thunderstorms
will diminish late tonight with the loss of daytime heating and
the axis of the minor upper level shortwave trof having moved east
of the region.

There is a very low probability of isolated thunderstorms late
Monday afternoon and evening across the far eastern zones near the
OK state line. However, the atmosphere may prove to be more hostile
as heights and mid level temperatures rise some, introducing some
idea of a mid level capping inversion. Due to uncertainty and low
confidence whether or not any showers or storms will develop in
the far eastern sections, have kept pops below mentionable at
this time. Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated across the region
Monday and Monday night.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For Tuesday through Thursday, generally dry weather is foreseen as
heights rise further. It appears the warmest day of the extended
forecast periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high
temperatures near or possibly exceeding 100 degrees across mainly
parts of the southern Texas Panhandle, including Palo Duro Canyon
State Park where highs may approach Heat Advisory criteria of 105
degrees. The threat for showers and thunderstorms may return to
the region Thursday night through Saturday as medium range
deterministic models and corresponding ensembles hint that some
semblance of northwest flow aloft may develop. NBM temperatures
and pops are reasonable based on the overall progged synoptic
pattern and were included in all periods of the long term forecast.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the 12Z TAFs, areas of MVFR to IFR cigs and patchy BR are
expected to erode around late this morning, and this is reflected
in the TAF at each site. It is possible additional showers and
thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon and evening across
parts of the OK and TX Panhandles. However, if storms were to
develop, coverage may end up more isolated in nature, which lends
to low forecaster confidence and precludes mentioning thunderstorms
at any of the terminal sites for this issuance.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  63  95  61 /  20  20   0   0
Beaver OK                  93  64  93  63 /  20  30  10  10
Boise City OK              94  56  92  58 /  20  10  10   0
Borger TX                  96  66  98  64 /  20  30  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              97  62  98  60 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  92  62  95  58 /  20  20   0   0
Clarendon TX               88  63  93  62 /  20  40  10  10
Dalhart TX                 94  56  94  55 /  20  10  10   0
Guymon OK                  94  60  93  59 /  20  20  10   0
Hereford TX                95  61  98  59 /  20  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                91  65  94  64 /  20  30  10  10
Pampa TX                   90  64  95  63 /  20  30  10  10
Shamrock TX                89  64  93  62 /  20  40  10  10
Wellington TX              89  65  96  64 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02