Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
173
FNUS73 KARX 221301
FWSARX
Spot Forecast for Weaver Dunes Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
801 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (608) 784-8292 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Lower chances in light precipitation continues
through today, further saturating grasses that have received near
two inches of rainfall by ignition point over the last couple of
days. Maximum amounts of 0.05" are possible today, in a narrow
east-west band this afternoon, near ignition point. Given the
very narrow swath, discerning exact location will be dependent on
near term radar observations over southeast Minnesota this
afternoon. Confidence decreases further regarding thunder chances.
Have entered slight chance but expected to remain scattered, even
moreso than aforementioned precipitation potential. Other than
precipitation and storm chances, wind gusts near 25 kts early this
morning will sustain through most of the day, lasting into the
evening before waning.
Otherwise, precipitation chances abate Thursday only to return
Thursday night, becoming widespread through Friday.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
showers in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 20 percent in the
afternoon.
Temperature.........61 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................65 percent at ignition...Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
West winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to around 27
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5100 ft AGL
increasing to 6600 ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 22 to 31 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /94300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /153000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth at ignition...max 4.
TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40 62 71 85 70 54 53 38
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 10 20 20 20 20 20 20
Temp............61 64 65 67 68 70 70 68
RH..............65 58 54 50 49 44 44 49
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..15 16 16 15 15 13 13 11
20 FT wind gust.27 26 26 25 23 23 22 21
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.1 5.1 5.5 6.0 6.4 6.6 5.0
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.31 31 30 29 28 28 25 22
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100094 111 132 136 144 153 146 95
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........Min 52.
RH..................Max 83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around 21
mph early in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL decreasing to 600 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 20 mph shifting to the southwest 8
to 10 mph early in the evening, then becoming
around 9 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (56600 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........44 17 4 7 10 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............10 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............68 62 58 55 53 52
RH..............49 65 72 80 83 83
20 ft wind......W 9 W 5 SW 4 SW 3 SW 3 S 3
20 ft wind gust.21 14 9 8 9 9
Mix hgt (ft)....3300 700 600 600 600 700
Transport wind..W 20 W 10 W 10 W 9 SW 9 SW 8
Haines index....4 4 4 4 5 5
SDspl kt-ft/100057 6 5 5 5 5
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 6 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 2600 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 6700 ft AGL
late in the morning decreasing to 4500 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 17 mph shifting to the south 17
to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (114300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........14 15 10 11 11 10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 10 10
Temp............52 59 69 75 78 79
RH..............86 78 59 46 40 39
20 ft wind......S 2 SW 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 S 6
20 ft wind gust.9 9 12 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....600 800 2600 5900 6700 6100
Transport wind..SW 9 S 10 SW 15 SW 17 SW 20 S 18
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10005 7 34 88 114 98
$$
Forecaster...JR
Requested by...Matt Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414895.0/ARX
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org