076
FXUS61 KBGM 260756
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be mostly dry, other than a few brief pop up showers
in Northeast Pennsylvania and the Catskills. Our next system
moves in late tonight into Monday with heavy rain and a chance
for thunderstorms. Additional scattered showers will linger
through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

355 AM Update...

A foggy start to the day, but conditions will improve later this
morning with clearing skies. Today will be mostly dry, however a
stationary front draped across Wyoming Valley - Poconos to
Catskills will be the focus for some isolated showers or
thunderstorm late this afternoon and this evening. The rest of
the area though will be mostly sunny with a lot of dry air
mixing down from above the boundary layer.

Clouds will increase overnight, as a warm front slides
northward across the region. Deep southwesterly return flow will
increase PWATs to over 1.5", which is above the 95th percentile
for this time of year. Rain chances will start to bump up
towards dawn Monday, especially Twin Tiers southward as that
warm front moving into the region. Widespread rain showers are
expected through the day Monday, but heaviest rainfall will
likely hold off until late in the day.

Forecast soundings on Monday show a fairly deep warm cloud
depth above 10K feet and as we get into the later part of the
day, long skinny CAPE is present through this deep warm cloud
layer, especially in NE PA. Any showers and thunderstorms that
do kick off in the afternoon will have intense rainfall rates.
Training and backbuilding cells will be possible late in the day
and into Monday night (past this period) as a quasi-stationary
front should remain over this region. Short Corfidi vectors
Monday evening shows back building cells will be favorable. At
this time, we will hold off from issuing a flood watch,
however, will continue to highlight the flash flooding threat in
the HWO and a watch may be needed at a later time. WPC has
also highlighted a slight risk for flash flooding in NE PA and
into the Catskills and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...
A warm front will lift north of the area Monday morning, with
southerly flow expected to advect in deeper moisture. Surface
dewpoints look to reach into the mid to upper-60s and PW values
1.6 to 1.7 inches. Rain showers will likely be on-going in the
morning, lifting northward towards the afternoon. Meanwhile, a
cold front and associated upper level disturbance will push in
from the west late in the afternoon or early in the evening,
bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. These will
benefit more from the deeper moisture, and locally heavy
rainfall will be possible. One upside is that the system does
look fairly progressive, which could limit precip totals to some
degree. Localized flooding potential will be highly dependent
on antecedent conditions resulting from rainfall today and
Sunday.

Cyclonic flow will continue on Tuesday, with more widely scattered,
and lighter rain showers possible, along with somewhat cooler
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM update...
A persistent upper level trough over Ontario and Quebec will
dominate the longer range pattern, with several shortwave troughs
expected to roll along its southern periphery into the northeastern
CONUS through the period. Cooler and showery conditions look to
persist Wednesday and Thursday, with drier and warmer
conditions working in late in the week, perhaps even well timed
with the weekend for a change.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Abundant low level in place over the region with foggy
conditions and low ceilings expected through the morning hours.
VLIFR conditions expected at ELM and IFR ceilings and fog expected
at all other NY sites. AVP should stay VFR most of the morning,
but some MVFR stratus may push overhead just before sunrise and
persist for a few hours this morning before clearing.

Improvement occurs late morning and all site return back to VFR
under weak high pressure. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible towards the end of the TAF period, but not enough
confidence to include at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday evening...Mainly VFR.

Monday through Wednesday...Occasional restrictions likely from
multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MPK