640
FXUS61 KBGM 011837
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
237 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure and dry conditions will continue through tonight.
Spotty showers are possible Sunday, mainly west of I-81. Otherwise,
warmer and mostly quiet conditions are expected through the first
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
1245 PM Update...

Forecast remains on track; blended in the latest obs in the near
term.

930 AM Update...

As with the previous update, adjusted temperatures and dew
points based on latest obs. Temperatures were running above the
current hourly forecast in a number of locations, so blended in
some of the NBM 90th percentile into the forecast through mid
afternoon. This gave a small bump to high temperatures this
afternoon by a degree or two. Rest of the forecast remains on
track.

615 AM Update...

Temperatures and dew points were adjusted based on the latest
obs. There were quite a few areas that dropped to around 40 this
morning. Over the much cooler areas, temperatures were warmed
up more gradually this morning. Otherwise, the forecast was
doing well.

230 AM Update...

High pressure will remain over the region today. Skies will be
mostly sunny with passing high clouds overhead. Temperatures will
climb into the mid 70s to low 80s. High clouds will move in
overnight as cloud cover gradually increases from the west.
Conditions remain quiet through the overnight hours with
temperatures only falling into the 50s.

A weak shortwave trough moves into the region Sunday as the ridge of
high pressure drifts eastward. This system will have to overcome the
drier air that will linger through at least the morning hours.
Showers that can develop will likely be spotty and mostly limited to
locations west of I-81. There does remain some uncertainty though as
most model guidance has trended drier with the GFS and some of the
CAMs being the exceptions. An isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be
ruled out as some guidance show weak surface-based instability (200-
400 J/kg) and shear (20 kts). Cloud cover will factor into how
unstable we get. Thunderstorm chances were based on the NAM and GFS,
so the northern portions of the Finger Lakes region would have the
best chance of seeing a thunderstorm. Southerly flow will help
temperatures reach the 70s and low 80s once again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

230 PM Update

The short term forecast period is mostly quiet with ridging
overhead. However, a weak upper impulse pushes across western
NY and into central PA Monday afternoon. At this time, with the
instability that will be in place Monday afternoon, can`t rule
out an isolated shower/storm, especially across NE PA.

Ridging will settle over the region Monday night into Tuesday
and this will make for dry and warm conditions, with highs
Tuesday afternoon into the 80s across most of the area.
Overnight temperatures will remain warm, with lows only in the
mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

235 PM Update

Ridging will likely hold over the area for most of the day on
Wednesday, so decided to cut back the PoPs from NBM. The best
chances for showers will be west of the I81 corridor during the
day on Wednesday and that shower threat will spread eastward
Wednesday night into Thursday. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
in the model guidance for days 6 and 7. Due to the low
confidence, stuck close to the NBM solution through the
remainder of the period. Forecast ensembles are indicating deep
SW return flow developing and NAEFS have PWAT anomaly of about 2
standard deviations. Unsettled weather on Thursday and Friday
is expected as a broad upper trough pushes down out of Canada.
Heavy rain shower and thunderstorms will be possible, especially
with the high low level moisture content. The upper level trough/low
remains just to the north Friday. This will keep the chance for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the work week and
into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the region through tonight which
will keep VFR conditions in place at all terminals with just
some scattered high clouds expected. High pressure will slide to
the east tomorrow and an upper level shortwave moving in from
the west will lead to an increase in clouds late in the TAF
period for the western terminals. Spotty showers are expected to
approach ELM as the TAF period comes to an end.

Outlook...

Late Sunday through Sunday Night...Chance of a shower/storm and
associated restrictions.

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR; Isolated rain showers.

Wednesday...Low chance of shower/storm and associated
restrictions.

Wednesday night into Thursday... increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions as a cold front
approaches.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/DK
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...BTL/DK