602
FXUS63 KBIS 282032
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are possible Wednesday later in the afternoon
  and early evening mainly west of Highway 83. Hail up to the
  size of ping pong balls, 70 mph winds, and a tornado or two
  are the primary threats.

- With this storm complex, there is a 90 percent chance or
  greater of a wetting rain (a tenth of an inch or more) for all
  of western through central ND, including the James River
  Valley.

- Outside of thunderstorm related wind gusts, breezy to windy
  conditions expected Wednesday, especially in the southwest and
  south central portions where winds could gust up to 45 MPH.

- Temperatures remaining near to slightly above average through
  the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will also
  continue, with a minimum to be found on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Surface high will exit through tonight, while ridge aloft is
found. The result will be mainly clear and dry conditions. An
increased surface gradient will shift winds to the southeast,
and they may become breezy across the west. This increase in
winds should limited the fog threat tonight. Temperatures
tonight will generally be in the 40s. If temperatures can trend
toward the NBM10th percentile, then some patchy frost is
possible in the east. This is not in the forecast, but important
to note as some areas trended this way for this morning.
Something to monitor. Wednesday will see this increased gradient
will be found across much of the CWA through Wednesday. This
could bring breezy to windy conditions across the forecast area.
Pressure falls through the day and lack of upper level support
creates just enough lack of confidence to hold off on a wind
advisory for now. That being the case, there is a strong low
level jet that develops in the southwest and southcentral for
Wednesday. If these winds can mix down, then gusts 45 MPH are
possible as well as sustained winds around 30 mph. High
temperatures from this southerly flow will warm into the 70s for
Wednesday, perhaps some lower 80s.

SPC has maintained a slight risk for severe weather later in the
day Wednesday through Wednesday night. The forecast is overall
very similar to last night. The threat is conditional, and more
so on the timing of everything along with some weak capping
issues. Low lee of the northern rockies still looks to set up
with a cold front pushing through sometime overnight. The moist
gulf southerly flow will increase dewpoints and instability
Wednesday afternoon into the evening. CAPE will be abundant in
over 2000 J/KG in some areas. However, the stronger overall
shear looks to be found on the back end of the front, with 0 to
6 KM shear in the warm sector forecast to be 25 to 35 knots.
These storms could maybe tap into higher amounts of shear at the
0 to 8 KM level though. The strong low level jet could
contribute to stronger 0 to 1 KM and 0 to 3 KM shear. This
could also bring some adequate helicity to the lower levels,
although the higher values of this are in the 0 to 3 KM layer.
This is shown in some hodographs, with veering in the
atmosphere not starting right away and be slightly elevated.
One last thing to note is the 0 to 6 KM shear vector is more
parallel to the expected surface trough and front. This could
make more discrete cells tougher to come by. Given the
uncertainty, there still remains enough of a threat and window
for severe weather Wednesday afternoon through the evening,
diminishing in the overnight hours. Abundant CAPE and enough
shear with some rotating storms possible will maintain the hail
threat to ping pong. A more organized storm or supercell could
produce an isolated golf ball sized hail. Large DCAPE and
increasing 0 to 3 KM shear will maintain wind gust threat up to
70 MPH. There still remains an isolated tornado threat if a more
discrete cell can get going before the front moves through.
Heavy rain is also possible with any storm that develops as Pwat
values are in the 90th percentile and over an inch.

Cold front then takes over showers and thunderstorms sometime
Wednesday night and pushes everything eastward through Thursday.
A breezy westerly wind may be found on Thursday, with
temperatures cooler and in the 60s. There could also be some
shower and thunderstorm chances in the north. A broad trough
over the region could bring more showers and thunderstorm
chances on Friday. A lack of instability will limit the severe
weather threat. Unsettled westerly flow then looks to be found
through the weekend. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
be isolated on Saturday, then could return to scattered on
Sunday. Temperatures look to warm each day, with highs
approaching 80 degrees on Sunday. Friday morning could see some
cooler low temperatures, with the weekend looking to see lows
more near normal.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the forecast
period. Some central and eastern sites could see lower VFR to
near MVFR FEW to SCT ceilings through this afternoon. Light
winds will become easterly throughout the day. Tonight, VFR and
dry conditions look to prevail. Easterly winds will become
southeasterly, and may become breezy across the west. Wednesday
morning then sees these southeasterly winds become breezy to
windy across most areas. VFR conditions look to continue through
Wednesday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...Anglin