Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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612 FXUS63 KBIS 262057 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 357 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms likely through the evening, becoming more isolated tonight. An isolated strong storm is possible with small hail and gusty winds. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could return on Memorial Day. High temperatures will generally be in the 60s. Some breezy northwest winds may be found across the south. - Generally dry conditions and warming temperatures to be found Tuesday into Wednesday. - Later Wednesday through the end of the work week, precipitation chances return while temperatures remain near to slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Shortwave trough wrapping around a stalled upper low in Canada will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through this evening. A few of these storms could be strong as MUCAPE of near 1000 J/KG will be found. The skinny cape profile though should make large hail tough, as well as the overall lack of shear. Expect more pulse like thunderstorms that may be strong briefly then diminish, and could produce hail of a half inch to an inch. Inverted V soundings and small amounts of DCAPE could also promote some gusty winds of 50 to perhaps 60 MPH in the strongest storms. Once the wave moves more eastward later this evening through tonight showers and thunderstorms should become more isolated tonight. Lingering cloud cover should keep overnight lows in the 40s, limiting the frost potential. There could be some lower clouds or perhaps patchy fog tonight. Fog is not in the forecast at this time, although northern and eastern areas do have some potential for this to occur. The main upper low in Canada looks to move southward on Memorial Day extending a trough into North Dakota. This could bring some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks even less for Monday, with shear also remaining low. Thus severe thunderstorms are not expected at this time. THe increased gradient could bring some breezy northwest winds on Memorial Day, mainly south and east. Look for temperatures to be slightly below normal and in the 60s. Skies go on a clearing trend Monday night, with wind also going light. This could bring some cool temperatures and perhaps some patchy fog. Lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s are forecast. Perhaps some patchy frost could return to the north central if overnight lows dip further, which will have to monitored. Tuesday, a building ridge will bring mainly clear skies and dry conditions. Areas closer to the ridge in the west will see warming temperatures, while eastern areas remain in the northwest flow pattern and see cooler temperatures in the 60s. Ridge starts out overhead on Wednesday, with a transition to southwest flow aloft throughout the day. A developing low lee of the northern Rockies could bring tight pressure gradient. This could bring a warm yet breezy to windy southerly flow. This unsettled setup could also return showers and thunderstorms to the west Wednesday afternoon and evening. Instability and shear go on the increase during this time period, perhaps bringing some strong to severe thunderstorms as also indicated by the CSU-MLP. A front and the upper wave then looks to move through on Thursday. CSU-MLP also showing the possibility of severe weather when this does so, which will also have to be monitored. A breezy southerly wind could become a breezy westerly wind depending on the timing of this wave. Warm temperatures on Wednesday may also linger into Thursday, also depending on timing. An upper low may then linger across southern Canada through much of the upcoming weekend. The resultant westerly flow could continue to bring near to slightly above normal temperatures. This unsettled pattern could also bring some showers and thunderstorms, although predictability at this point is low and the NBM generally maintains slight pops at times through this time period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Showers and thunderstorms through this evening could bring some impacts to area TAF sites. Overall VFR conditions are expected during this time period, although any shower/thunderstorm could briefly produce MVFR to IFR conditions. Coverage today looks to be isolated to scattered. Thus use VCTS and TEMPO groups for precipitation mention. Tonight into Memorial Day morning, shower and thunderstorms become more isolated. VFR conditions could become MVFR with lower clouds expected to move into the area. Light winds today will become northwest tonight and perhaps breezy on Memorial Day. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin