Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
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079 FXUS64 KBMX 271806 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 106 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 A frontal boundary will continue to move to the southeast through the day today, with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the front in the southeastern third of Central Alabama through the afternoon and evening. Instabilities will be between the 3000 and 3500 J/kg range, though winds will be fairly light with shear values hovering around 30 kts in the late afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds the main threat. This evening, the front will move southeast of the area with activity diminishing shortly after sunset. Fog development is possible in the southeast where rain sets up this evening, though will need to monitor coverage tonight. High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s in the south. Though with the amount of moisture present over the south, heat indices will be in the upper 90s. Low temperatures will be in the 60s, a few degrees above normal for this time of year. Tuesday will have high pressure and mostly clear skies with northerly flow bringing plenty of dry air to the state. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday, though with lower PW values, the heat indices will feel like the actually temperature. 24 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 124 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 High pressure builds in across the region Tuesday night and will persist through much of the upcoming week. This will lead to mostly dry conditions for Central AL with seasonably warm temperatures. Model guidance continues to hint at the potential for a weak shortwave sliding through the area Wednesday into Thursday, but there`s a lot of uncertainty in that occurring, so the forecast remains mostly dry through the period. Our next chance for rain/storms doesn`t come in until the end of the week and into next weekend. The ridge shifts slightly to our east, allowing for an upper wave to dip into the Mid-south at some point, but model guidance has gone back and forth on this feature, showing quite a bit of variability in timing and evolution. For now, I`ve continued to trend rain/storm chances up to 20-30% for next weekend, but I would expect several changes to that over the next few days. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect mainly KMGM and KTOI this afternoon through the early evening. Right now have MVFR visibilities to account for any activity that moves over either TAF site, though if cells start training, visibilities could drop quickly to IFR conditions. After sunset, most activity should move east, with fog development possible at KMGM and KTOI. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage of rain this evening, left of mention of fog for now. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Some of the storms could produce damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. 20 foot winds today will be from the south to southwest at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Min RH today will be 50-60 percent and Max RH tonight near 100%. No wetting rain expected after 9 PM tonight tonight and lasting through Thursday. Northwest 20 foot winds 5-7 mph on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 86 60 83 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 64 87 61 84 / 10 0 0 10 Birmingham 65 88 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 Tuscaloosa 66 90 65 84 / 0 0 0 10 Calera 67 89 65 84 / 10 0 0 10 Auburn 68 88 65 85 / 30 0 0 10 Montgomery 68 90 65 87 / 20 0 0 10 Troy 68 90 65 88 / 40 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...24