834
FXUS64 KBMX 301724
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

A "cool" front is moving through the area this morning. Showers and
a few storms are developing along the leading edge as a shortwave
slides along the front. Best chances will be this morning, generally
in the south and west. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon and
the front pushes through/washes out. High pressure will build in
behind the system and allow more sun to shine on Friday. With the
clouds across the area and rain across the south and west,
temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. This may be one of
those days in which the high is around 6 PM as the sun begins to
peak out across the south. Fair skies tonight as the high pressure
builds. Look for lows to be in the upper 50s north to low 60s
elsewhere. With the sun on Friday, temperatures will jump into the
mid to upper 80s, with a few locales near 90 degrees.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the
weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will
stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause
increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with
respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a
few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the
weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features
will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper
level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly
northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Clouds will be more widespread and thicker over the south and
southwest, while fewer clouds will persist across the far north
and northeast today. A few showers will remain possible around MGM
and TOI, with chances too low to mention at TCL and EET while
conditions should remain dry at BHM/ASN/ANB. Chances for showers
will decrease overnight but the potential will linger across the
far southwest with at least scattered clouds, generally southwest
of TCL to MGM. Expect scattered clouds areawide on Friday with
chances for some shower activity across much of the area, but
potential remains too low to mention for this issuance.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered rain showers and a storm or two will move
across the southern portions of the area through the morning. Rain
chances decrease this afternoon. Minimum RH values in the 35 to 40
in the northeast to 50 to 60 percent in the southwest with the rain
early.  Minimum RH values range from 30 to 40 percent on Friday.
20ft winds will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly
Saturday at 4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend along
with increased RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     58  86  63  84 /   0  20  10  40
Anniston    60  86  64  83 /   0  20   0  40
Birmingham  65  87  69  85 /  10  20  10  50
Tuscaloosa  66  89  68  84 /  10  20  10  60
Calera      63  87  68  83 /  10  20  10  50
Auburn      64  85  66  82 /  10  10   0  30
Montgomery  64  88  69  86 /  10  10  10  50
Troy        64  88  68  85 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...05