Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
395 FXUS64 KBMX 311844 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 144 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 144 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 This afternoon. A highly amplified longwave ridge axis extended from over the Northeast Gulf of Mexico northward to over much of Michigan. Toward the surface, expansive high pressure located across Western Pennsylvania continues to influence conditions across our northeast and eastern counties while a diffuse surface boundary extends from Central Texas eastward into the Mid-South and further southeast across our southwest and southern counties. Clouds are increasing from the west and southwest from deep convection well to our southwest over Southeast Texas. Shower activity has developed over the past few hours over portions of eastern Mississippi and is moving into portions of our southwest and west-central counties early this afternoon. Some thunderstorm activity will be possible in this area later this afternoon as a few shortwave disturbances in the mid levels propagate eastward over the western portion of the area. Cloud cover will be thinnest across the east but skies will generally become partly cloudy areawide later this afternoon. Winds will be breezy at times from the southeast at 10-20 mph due to the proximity of the weak front and the pressure gradient from northeast to southwest across the area. High temperatures will range from the mid 80s far north and in the higher terrain east to readings around 90 far south. Tonight. A weakness in the mid-levels will move over the Mid-South Region overnight while longwave ridging moves further to the northeast of the area. Surface high pressure will move further northeast of the area, becoming centered across the Mid Atlantic Region while a diffuse surface boundary will linger to our southwest and will help act as a focus for more showers and some thunderstorms to develop and move east into the area. Winds will be from the southeast at 4-8 mph. Low temperatures will range from the low 60s north and in the higher terrain east to readings in the upper 60s to near 70 far southwest. Saturday. The weakness aloft moves northeast, becoming centered over much of the Tennessee Valley Region on Saturday. The northwest flow aloft along with sufficient instability and some shear will favor development of widespread showers with more thunderstorm activity, especially toward midday and into the afternoon. Conditions may favor the development of a mesoscale convective system upstream that may move into the area later in the day that would pose an organized damaging wind risk. Even if that scenario does not materialize, even isolated heavy storms may be capable of a downburst wind risk. Additionally, heavy rainfall with higher precipitable waters and generally slower storm motions could result in localized flooding where multiple storms move over the same area, especially urbanized and poor drainage areas. Winds will be from the southeast at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from around 80 far north and in the higher elevations east to the low to mid 80s southwest and far south. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 253 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 There`s still quite a bit of leftover moisture in place as the Ohio Valley shortwave trough exits the area to the northeast, and another weaker wave approaches from the west. High POPs are still indicated as we head into Sunday. Beyond that, synoptic scale forcing features are quite subtle, and daily POPs will mainly be driven by mesoscale processes and diurnal heating. Upper level ridging is forecast to take place out west, and that will eventually put us in the northwest flow regime by the middle to end of next week. That should keep temperatures in check during this time frame. /61/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2024 Clouds will gradually increase from the west through the rest of the afternoon with increasing chances of showers through early afternoon, followed by a chance of showers and some thunderstorms far west. Expect clouds to continue to increase east over the area tonight with further increases in showers with some thunderstorms with greatest chances remaining across the west. Rain chances only increase further into the day on Saturday with thunderstorm potential growing at the end of this forecast cycle arriving from the west and moving east across the area later in the day. 05 && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated rain chances exist through this evening, with most of the area remaining dry. Areas in the west will see increasing rain coverage by sunrise on Saturday. Minimum RH values in the 38 to 48 percent range are expected this afternoon, with 20 ft southeasterly winds at 6-8mph. Better rain chances arrive on Saturday along with increased RH values and heavy rain, especially in the south. 20 ft winds becoming southerly but remaining less than 10 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 62 80 64 82 / 60 100 60 60 Anniston 65 82 65 83 / 50 80 60 60 Birmingham 65 82 67 83 / 60 100 60 60 Tuscaloosa 68 84 67 84 / 60 100 60 70 Calera 65 82 67 84 / 60 100 60 60 Auburn 65 83 66 82 / 30 60 40 50 Montgomery 67 85 67 85 / 60 80 40 60 Troy 67 83 67 84 / 40 70 40 60 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....61 AVIATION...05