083
FXUS64 KBMX 301110
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
610 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

A "cool" front is moving through the area this morning. Showers and
a few storms are developing along the leading edge as a shortwave
slides along the front. Best chances will be this morning, generally
in the south and west. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon and
the front pushes through/washes out. High pressure will build in
behind the system and allow more sun to shine on Friday. With the
clouds across the area and rain across the south and west,
temperatures today will be in the low to mid 80s. This may be one of
those days in which the high is around 6 PM as the sun begins to
peak out across the south. Fair skies tonight as the high pressure
builds. Look for lows to be in the upper 50s north to low 60s
elsewhere. With the sun on Friday, temperatures will jump into the
mid to upper 80s, with a few locales near 90 degrees.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

Upper level shortwave will scoot across the Ohio Valley over the
weekend. While much of the lift associated with this feature will
stay to our north, it will still provide enough lift here to cause
increased POPs -- into the high chance/likely range. Looks like both
Saturday and Sunday afternoons will be the timeframes to watch, with
respect to both coverage of thunderstorms and the possibility of a
few stronger storms given the amount of instability. Beyond the
weekend, timing differences in the models on low amplitude features
will result in a return to more climo-based POPs. With the upper
level pattern across the southeast states being zonal to slightly
northwest, no extremes in temperatures are anticipated at this time.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2024

VFR conditions to remain for the period. Winds will shift to more
of northerly direction by 18 to 21. Showers and a storm or two
can not be ruled out at EET, TCL, or TOI but chances remain at 20
percent or less so continued to leave out. Did add in some tempo
showers at MGM after 14z. Echoes are already on radar but not
reaching the surface yet.

NOTE: KANB comm issue has been resolved, so AMD NOT SKED has been
removed.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered rain showers and a storm or two will move
across the southern portions of the area through the morning. Rain
chances decrease this afternoon. Minimum RH values in the 35 to 40
in the northeast to 50 to 60 percent in the southwest with the rain
early.  Minimum RH values range from 30 to 40 percent on Friday.
20ft winds will be light and variable, becoming southeasterly
Saturday at 4-7mph. Better rain chances arrive for the weekend along
with increased RH values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  55  87  63 /  10   0   0  10
Anniston    83  58  88  64 /  10  10   0   0
Birmingham  84  62  89  69 /  20  10   0  10
Tuscaloosa  82  63  89  68 /  20  10  10  10
Calera      82  62  88  68 /  20  10   0  10
Auburn      81  62  86  66 /  20  10   0   0
Montgomery  81  62  89  69 /  20  10   0  10
Troy        82  62  89  68 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....61
AVIATION...16