048
FXUS64 KBMX 190556
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1256 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 701 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Thunderstorms developed along a low level instability gradient and
the influence of an upper level low northwest. These storms
produced a nice cold pool that migrated south and east. Early this
evening, the remaining storms were located between Birmingham and
Montgomery and stretched east to west. These storms will continue
for another hour or two before diminishing as they migrate south
and east. The storms have the potential of producing some small
hail and gust winds. It appears the severe threat will be limited
but will leave the Marginal Risk going until 9 pm south. As the
upper trough/low continues eastward overnight, drier air will
begin filtering in. Temperatures are expected to be cooler than
last night. The combination of the rain the past 24-48 hours and
skies decreasing in clouds and cooler temps will lead to some
patchy fog. The fog appears to have the best chance of affecting
visibility will be east central areas along and south of I-20.
Lows in the 60s.

Sunday will feature much drier conditions with northerly flow at
700mb. A surface ridge over the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will
build southwestward by Sunday afternoon. What appears to be a
"back door" surface boundary will creep westward into our far
eastern counties, with some upper level shortwave energy to work
with. A few isolated showers and perhaps a storm can`t be ruled
out across the far east as a result. Otherwise, everyone else will
be dry and warm as upper heights begin to rise. Mid to upper 80s
will be common for highs by Sunday afternoon.

56/GDG/75

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2024

Central Alabama will transition into a drier and warmer pattern
next week as an upper ridge builds across the Central Gulf Coast
region. Highs will reach the upper 80s to near 90 Tuesday and
Wednesday. A northern stream short wave trough will push a weak
cold front to near the Al/TN state line on Thursday. This will
increase rain chances across north Alabama Thursday and Friday,
with better chances for rain on Friday.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2024

Rain has exited the area recently, but moisture levels are very
high. Low clouds and patchy fog are developing as a result, and
it is unfortunately disorganized. Either way, I`ve mainly
advertised IFR conditions through at least 13z at all Central
Alabama terminals. This includes cigs 002-004 and vis as low as
1SM. There is potential for vis below 1SM, so will monitor obs.

Conditions begin to improve by ~14z, and VFR conditions are
forecast through the afternoon with northerly winds less than 10
kts.

40/Sizemore

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue across
Central Alabama through the evening hours, mainly south of I-20
after sunset. Areas of fog after midnight due to rain and moist
low level conditions. A slight chance of storms across the far
eastern counties on Sunday. Min RH values on Sunday 50-55 percent.
Light 20ft winds overnight become north 4-6 mph on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     84  61  88  60 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    83  62  88  62 /  20  10   0   0
Birmingham  85  65  88  64 /  10  10   0   0
Tuscaloosa  86  65  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      84  65  87  64 /  10   0   0   0
Auburn      81  64  85  64 /  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  84  65  87  64 /  10  10   0   0
Troy        83  64  86  63 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...75
LONG TERM....58/rose
AVIATION...40/Sizemore