Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
900
FNUS75 KBOU 021050
FWSBOU
Spot Forecast for Forsythe II - Unit 44...USFS
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
450 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION... This morning will see mostly sunny skies before
becoming increasingly cloudy around noon. Winds are expected to
be westerly with gusts up to 25 mph possible until 1300 when a
slight chance of thunderstorms develops. If storms develop, they
are expected to be high-based with gusty and erratic winds. With
today forecast to be the warmest day of the year thus far,
relative humidities are expected to drop into the low teens. As
this location seems to respond very effectively to cloud cover,
the increasing clouds through the afternoon could help keep
temperatures a little cooler than forecast and RH a touch higher
than the 13% that is expected. Monday looks to see improving
conditions as RH values are expected to climb above 20% and winds
will be generally light and from the west until another chance for
afternoon thunderstorms initiates after 1500 that could bring
gusty and erratic winds.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent) until 1100, then
partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 1600, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers and thunderstorms after 1300.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 81.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25
mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms after 1300.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL until 0900, then 4300 ft AGL until
1000, then 7700 ft AGL until 1100, then 13600
ft AGL until 1700, then 9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 16 mph until 1000, then 20 to 26
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then fair until 1000, then
very good until 1100, then excellent.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18 19 21 26 33 39 38 47 56 54
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 10 20 20 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 2
Temp............58 66 70 73 75 77 78 80 77 75
RH..............35 25 23 19 17 14 13 13 15 17
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..5 5 6 6 12 12 15 15 15 15
20 FT wind gust.7 7 9 9 20 20 25 25 25 25
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 4.3 7.7 11 13 14 14 14 13 9.8
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 16 20 22 25 26 25 25 23 23
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 60 131 207 276 312 307 300 252 196
SmokeDispersion.P F VG E E E E E E E
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) until 1900, then
partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 15 mph with gusts to around 24
mph until 0400, then 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms until
2000.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL until 1900. Below 1000 FT AGL after
2000.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 21 mph until 2400, then southwest 8
to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 1900, then fair until 2000,
then poor.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........57 48 44 40 36 32 28 27 25 24 23 21
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............73 68 62 59 57 55 52 52 50 49 48 47
RH..............19 24 29 36 38 42 46 47 50 51 54 53
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..15 13 13 13 12 9 8 7 6 6 6 6
20 FT wind gust.24 22 22 21 18 16 13 12 9 9 9 9
Mix hgt (kft)...8.3 3.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W SW W W SW W W
Transp wind spd.21 16 13 13 13 13 10 9 10 12 10 12
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..150 45 10 8 9 9 6 5 6 7 6 7
SmokeDispersion.VG F P P P P P P P P P P
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 1600, then
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
CWR.................3 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms after 1500.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 0800. 9600 ft AGL after
1200.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 17 mph until 0900, then 17 to 22
mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0800, then fair until 0900, then
very good until 1200, then excellent until
1700, then very good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26 31 36 35 35 35 38 42 45 48 52 56
Weather cov..... SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
Temp............46 50 55 60 66 68 71 74 76 76 76 74
RH..............57 53 45 36 29 27 24 22 21 21 21 21
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8
20 FT wind gust.13 13 12 12 13 13 15 15 15 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.9 3.1 5.6 7.0 8.0 9.1 9.4 9.7 10 9.1 8.2
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.10 13 17 22 21 21 20 20 21 21 20 17
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6 10 46 107 126 145 155 160 175 180 155 124
SmokeDispersion.P P F VG VG VG E E E E E VG
$$
Forecaster...Bonner
Requested by...Ed LeBlanc
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414199.14/BOU
.DELDT 06/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Edward.leblanc@usda.gov