812
FXUS64 KBRO 021117 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
617 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Message:

-Above normal temperatures continue

Generally quiet weather will prevail in the short term. A mid-level
ridge will remain in place, supporting dry and warmer than normal
weather. High pressure over the Gulf will fuel moderate to breezy
southeast winds. High temperatures will top the century mark for
most inland locations today and Monday. Heat index values will range
from 105 to 110 degrees for a few hours each afternoon, and could
briefly go to 111 or 112 degrees in some areas. Decided to forego a
heat advisory for now based on the borderline conditions. Low
temperatures will be near 80 tonight. The movement of a short-wave
trough through the ridge could trigger Sierra Madre Oriental
convection tonight, but models keep any significant precip west of
deep South Texas. For those going to the beach, a moderate rip
current risk will prevail today and tonight, possibly shifting to
high on Monday as wave heights and swell periods increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

500 mb high pressure initially centered over northern Mexico will
gradually build northwest through the period, eventually becoming
centered over the Four Corners area of the United States. This
pattern will produce dry weather across the BRO CWFA through the
long term forecast period. However, some model guidance suggests
that a shortwave riding within the mid-level flow may generate
some convection over the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico
Monday night, which may then propagate into the far western
portion of the BRO CWFA. The potential for this will need to be
monitored by successive shifts, especially since the Storm
Prediction Center places Zapata County in a general risk of
thunderstorms at that time. For now, however, the forecast will
be dry as previously stated.

Meanwhile, well above normal daytime high temperatures are also
anticipated. The combination of ambient air temperatures and
relative humidity percentages will support a HEAT ADVISORY for
portions or all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley
Tuesday and Wednesday, with a SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT for the
remainder of the daylight hours of the period.

Finally, the interaction between thermal low pressure over Mexico
and high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will create a breezy to
windy onshore flow through the period. Despite the enhanced
pressure gradient, a WIND ADVISORY is not expected to be needed.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR at KMFE and KHRL due to ceilings while KBRO has gone
ceilingless. Southeast winds will pick up to breezy and gusty
today and remaining ceilings should scatter out. Low clouds will
develop this evening, with ceilings lowering to MVFR. Winds will
remain moderate overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate to slightly elevated wave
heights will prevail. Small craft should exercise caution
conditions will dominate, with marginal small craft advisory
conditions on the Gulf possible by tonight. High pressure will
continue ridging into the Gulf from downstream, supporting the
enhanced winds and seas.

(Monday Night through Saturday)
Small Craft Advisory conditions will exist along the Lower Texas
Coast through the first half of the period courtesy of thermal
low pressure over Mexico interacting with high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico. Marine conditions will improve to Small Craft
Exercise Caution criteria Wednesday night through Thursday, with
even more improved winds and seas for Friday and Saturday, as
high pressure builds farther west into the western Gulf of Mexico
and weakens the pressure gradient.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             95  82  95  82 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               98  80  97  80 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                100  82 100  81 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY        102  81 102  80 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      87  82  87  83 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     93  81  93  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...54-BHM