426
FXUS61 KBTV 311943
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
343 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cool night tonight, our recent stretch of gorgeous
early summer weather continues with a steady warming trend
through the weekend and into early next week. High pressure will
keep the weather dry for the next several days. Our next best
chance of rain does not arrive until middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...This afternoon, temperatures reached the
low to mid 70s across many locations in North Country. Deep mixing
up to 800mb have allowed for drier air to be mixed down to the
surface, as well as facilitated more effective adiabatic warming
from the northwest flow. It is also on the breezier side, with
sustained winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of up to 25 mph. These winds
should die down with sunset, and with clear skies, temperatures
should quickly fall this evening into the overnight hours. Having
said that, temperatures are not expected to be as chilly as the past
couple of nights so frost concerns should be negligible. Still, the
usual cold prone locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom
will get down into the upper 30s, with low 40s to low 50s expected
elsewhere. A few mid 30s readings are not out of the question given
how dry the air mass is. Dew points went a few degrees lower than
the hi-res model guidance depicted this afternoon, bottoming out in
the mid to upper 30s due to good boundary layer mixing. So have gone
lower than guidance for the overnight lows given the mostly clear
skies and light to calm winds at the surface. A slight kink in the
forecast is that given the proximity of the building ridge from the
west and upper low that remains across the Canadian Maritimes, hi-
res guidance does indicate slight warming in temperatures aloft at
the 925-850mb level west of the Champlain Valley, but a slight
cooling east of the Greens. So there is a slightly higher
probability that the Northeast Kingdom see the lowest overnight
temperatures tonight. Overall, it is very subtle, and no meaningful
weather impacts are expected regardless of whether the overnight low
is upper 30s or low 40s.

We can look forward to a warming trend as we begin meteorological
summer. Saturday looks to be gorgeous days for outdoor activities,
with highs 74-82, plentiful sunshine and comfortable humidity. Area
waters are still on the cool side with water temperatures in the low
to mid 60s. Given that it is the weekend and with sunny condition
and temperatures reaching the low 80s, cold water safety should be
exercised for those taking advantage of the gorgeous weather. While
upper ridging builds in from the west, we do maintain a light
northerly flow below 850mb level so the air mass will be continental
polar in nature. Dew points will be in the 40s so the weather will
be gorgeous to be outdoors. Overnight lows on Saturday night should
be quite a bit warmer than Friday night, bottoming out in the mid
40s to low 50s as the warming trend takes hold and temperatures fall
from daytime highs that are 5 to 7 degrees higher than on Friday
afternoon. Next chance for a few isolated showers may arrive on
Sunday, but given the overall dry synoptic pattern, it may be more
in the way of clouds as opposed to any appreciable rainfall. So
generally, have kept a dry forecast with PoPs staying below slight
chance category, i.e. less than 15 percent through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...The beautiful weather will continue through
the weekend as the region remains under upper level ridging.
Temperatures will once again warm into the upper 70s and low 80s,
with dewpoints only in the 50s making it feel quite pleasant. A weak
shortwave will approach the region on Sunday, which will allow for
some increased moisture across the region. This will mostly come in
the form of some mid-level clouds due to dry air associated with the
upper ridge, although a spot shower or sprinkle may be possible.
Sunday night will be on the mild side, with overnight lows dropping
into the 50s to near 60. Overall, it should be a beautiful end to
the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Friday...The region will continue to remain under
the influence of upper level ridging for the first half of the work
week, keep the chances for showers fairly low. Rain chances will
gradually increase as we head towards the middle of next week as the
ridge slowly breaks down with a potential closed low over the Great
Lakes and a cold front approaching from the west. Temperatures for
most of next week will be seasonably warm, generally the low to mid
80s in the broad valleys, before some cooler temperatures return
late week. Overnight low temperatures will continue to be on the
mild side, with no frost or freeze concerns anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions with dry weather will prevail
through the TAF period. A mid/high deck 15-20 kft during the
daylight hours will become clear overnight tonight. Northwest
winds with gusts up to 18-23 kt this afternoon will subside to
light and variable after 00z Saturday before increasing to 10-15
kt after 12z Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Chai
NEAR TERM...Chai
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Chai