Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
873 FXUS61 KBUF 270743 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 343 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Great Lakes will provide dry weather through today. The tropical remnants of Helene will approach from the south, bringing the possibility of some rain showers tonight and this weekend, mainly south of Interstate 90. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry weather today, although higher level cloud cover associated with tropical moisture from Helene will continue to spread northward. The extensive cloud cover should hold temperatures down a bit from most guidance with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The remnants of Helene will shift westward towards the Ohio Valley tonight. Some leading bands of rain may sneak into southern portions of the area for a time, but a mid-level dry slot wrapping in from the south-southeast should keep the rain light and rather spotty. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A closed low will meander across the Ohio Valley while an upper level ridge slowly pushes east of the region this weekend. A warm, moist conveyor belt with remnants of tropical moisture from Helene will move into the forecast area this weekend. The forecast continues to trend wet and cloudy across western NY this weekend. A few shortwave troughs on the north side of the closed low will swing by the forecast area. This may trigger rain showers across western NY, however showers should not cause a washout. Surface high pressure and the upper level ridge will fend off the moisture and keep the Eastern Lake Ontario region mostly dry, albeit cloudy. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the low to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The closed low with remnants of Helene will finally get forward speed as a trough deepens across the Northern Plains Monday through Monday night. Initially, an upper level ridge will be across the Great Lakes region maintaining mostly dry weather Monday. Then, the low will become an open wave and lift northeast and cause moisture to move into the forecast area into Tuesday. A southerly flow will deepen Tuesday as the trough to the west moves into the Great Lakes region. A strong cold front will move across the forecast area in the Tuesday night to Wednesday time frame. Showers will likely accompany the cold front with the potential for a few thunderstorms. Cold air advection will occur immediately behind the front with ensemble mean 850mb temperatures falling to +5C by Wednesday night. Strong subsidence and drier air will move into the region for Thursday. Temperatures will be above normal Monday and Tuesday, then close to normal Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain across the Great Lakes today. Upper level moisture associated with Helene will continue to spread northward. Variable vsbys this morning with some very patchy fog. Any fog will quickly dissipate today, with mainly VFR flight conditions. Some clouds with bases around 4k feet will push into the Southern Tier with patchy MVFR possible. Outlook... Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR, with areas of MVFR in low cigs and showers across the Southern Tier at times. Monday night and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely. && .MARINE... Light winds and negligible waves this morning as high pressure ridges in from the north. Northeast flow will pick up this afternoon and into this weekend as the remnants of Helene advance towards the Ohio Valley tightening the pressure gradient across the lower Great Lakes. Small craft headlines may been needed for the early portion of the weekend on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/TMA NEAR TERM...TMA SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...Apffel/TMA MARINE...TMA