589
FXUS65 KBYZ 270809
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
209 AM MDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry through Saturday.

- Hot, dry and windy conditions will bring fire weather concerns
  to portions of the area on Sunday.

- Record high temperatures Sunday.

- Cooler conditions return Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday night...

Heights will gradually build over the region through the short
term as flow amplifies into Saturday. Warm and dry conditions can
be expected with well above normal temperatures continuing. High
temperatures will range from the 80s to near 90 degrees today,
with 80s to lower 90s on Saturday, warmest over southeast MT.
Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s overnight. Overall,
winds are expected to be light for most locations. STP

Sunday through Friday...

SREF and ensembles showed a trough approaching the forecast area
on Sunday. This trough will drive a dry cold front through the
area, but timing of this front was uncertain due to different
model solutions. Ahead of the front, expect record high temps from
the upper 80s W to the mid 90s E. These temps have trended higher
since yesterday. NBM probabilities of temps reaching at least 90
degrees were from the 50s percent N, to 100% over and near KSHR,
from KBIL E. KBIL had a 61% chance of reaching 90. These
temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above normal for this time
of year. In addition to the heat, humidities will be low across
the area, mostly in the teens. Another issue is the winds will be
gusting into the 20s and 30s, at least from KBIL W in the
afternoon, depending on frontal timing. Nudged wind speeds/gusts
toward the NBM 90th percentile over these areas, but these areas
could change depending on the timing of the front. As of now, the
Hot Dry Windy Index and Fosberg highlight areas W and S of KBIL.
The west has received good rainfall recently, but areas in SE MT
and Sheridan County did not. So, given the above, there will be
fire concerns on Sunday over portions of the area, but will have
to watch model trends to narrow down the areas of concern.

Monday is still forecast to be much cooler, with highs in the 50s
and 60s, as the upper trough swings through the area. Expect
breezy conditions, with the highest gusts over the far E and KSHR.
NW flow overtakes the area on Tuesday with lighter winds and temps
in the 70s. On Wednesday, clusters showed either NW flow, zonal
flow or ridging. Temps will be slightly cooler than on Tuesday.
Varying model solutions continued in the clusters through Friday,
but forecast will remain dry with temps in the 60s and 70s. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail today and tonight with light surface winds. Areas
of increasing smoke from wildfires will cause decreased slant
range visibility. Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 052/083 054/091 048/061 039/074 049/068 039/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
LVM 084 047/085 052/088 040/063 036/076 044/069 033/065
    0/U 00/U    00/N    10/U    00/U    01/B    11/B
HDN 085 049/087 050/095 046/062 036/076 044/069 035/065
    0/U 00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    00/B    11/B
MLS 085 051/088 055/093 049/060 038/071 046/068 037/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    11/N    00/B    00/B    11/U
4BQ 089 051/091 059/095 050/063 039/071 047/071 037/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/B
BHK 087 049/088 055/093 047/061 034/069 042/068 034/063
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/N    00/U    00/B    00/U
SHR 089 048/091 052/096 044/063 035/076 044/073 034/066
    0/U 00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings