030
FXUS62 KCAE 010701
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
301 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will be in control through Saturday bringing
cooler than normal temperatures. High pressure will move
offshore this weekend allowing moisture and above normal
temperatures to return to the region. This pattern typically
results diurnally driven, isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms which should continue through at least mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure to our north continues to move toward the eastern
seaboard overnight. Aloft, the upper level trough has moved
offshore and ridging will move into the region for the weekend.
Northwest flow ahead of the ridge will continue to usher in
cooler than normal temperatures. Airmass remains drier than
usual for one more night. With mostly clear skies and light
winds, another good radiational cooling night may be on tap.
Only fly in the ointment may be if a few higher clouds move
through. Even so, still expect cooler readings for one more
night,  with lows in the low to middle 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
With high pressure moving offshore Saturday weak southerly flow
will develop over the Southeast. Despite some increase in
atmospheric moisture the highest PWAT values remain well west of
the forecast area. PWAT are likely to remain under 1 inch.
Model guidance shows a sea-breeze boundary working into the area
late day along with possibly a shortwave trough. However, dry
air and warm temperatures aloft will very likely prevent
rainfall. With a southerly component to the low level flow,
highs will be slightly warmer than the previous day, mainly in
the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will be closer to normal
than the past few night with values in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday marks the start of a shift in the synoptic pattern with
zonal flow or weak ridging over the region and increasing
moisture. PWAT values rise above 1 inch as surface high pressure
moves further offshore and a deeper southerly flow develops.
This will also lead to warmer temperatures than during the week
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. With the more zonal flow
pattern aloft we may see a shortwave work into the area. Near
normal atmospheric moisture and possible shortwave activity
could support isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. In general, the strongest vorticity advection
seems to stay west and north of the forecast area so widespread
convection seems unlikely.

Zonal flow is generally expected to persist into mid-week with
periodic shortwave activity pushing through the Southeast.
Atmospheric moisture remains near or slightly above normal
during this timeframe. This pattern of possible shortwave
activity and near normal atmospheric moisture should support
isolated to scattered convection each afternoon and evening.
Highs during the long term should be near or slightly above
normal. Global ensembles favor an upper level trough digging
into the eastern US mid to late next week. There are some
differences though between members as to the amplitude and
timing of the trough. This could allow a front to approach the
FA towards the end of the long term, but confidence is low given
the differences in ensemble members.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

As high pressure moves offshore Saturday, will see a gradual
increase in moisture with winds shifting out of the southeast
between 5 to 10 knots. While VFR conditions are expected to
continue, a cumulus field will develop around 5kft.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated afternoon showers and
storms each day Sunday through Wednesday. Low chance of
restrictions late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...