144
FXUS61 KCAR 011901
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
301 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slowly builds to our south through Sunday. An area of
low pressure slowly drifts west over the southern Canadian Maritimes
Sunday night, followed by high pressure building down from the
northeast Monday through Wednesday. The high then slowly slides
offshore through Thursday, as a complex storm system slowly
moves across the northern Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This Afternoon...
High pressure at the surface and aloft is centered just west of
us, with an upper level low pressure spinning in place just
south of Nova Scotia. This is putting us under stable northerly
flow, with a north breeze and some fair weather cumulus,
generally more abundant closer to the New Brunswick. More sun
than clouds this afternoon. Temperatures are comfortable in the
neighborhood of 70 degrees, with very dry air.

Tonight...
High pressure over the area. Daytime cumulus should dissipate,
with just a few high clouds moving in from the west. With light
winds and generally clear skies, good radiational cooling
expected, with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Not expecting
any frost.

Sunday...
Not much change for Sunday, except the upper level ridge of
high pressure to our west inches closer and is centered along
the Maine/Quebec border, while the upper level low to our east
shifts a touch further east. This will bring warmer temperatures
than Saturday with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s, and a
tendency for cirrus rather than cumulus. Still, cirrus will be
thin and not everywhere, with skies clear to mostly clear.
Dewpoints will still be lower than usual, so although
temperatures will be in the mid 70s to low 80s, it will still
feel pleasant.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models have come into better agreement on handling the cutoff
low ESE of Nova Scotia - and indicate it will retrograde WSW
Sunday night, this should bring some isolated to possibly
scattered showers (far Downeast) mainly after midnight Sunday
night, with an increase in clouds elsewhere, especially from
Katahdin on east. Lows Sunday night should be a few degrees
above normal.

The cutoff low slowly exits to the east again on Monday as
northern stream ridging approaches from the west. Other than
possibly some lingering isolated showers early over far Downeast
Maine, it should be dry, with some decrease in cloud cover -
especially from Katahdin and west. Highs on Monday should be
around 5-10 degrees above normal. It should be warmest over far
western zones - were there is a better chance of meaningful
sunshine in the afternoon.

Deep layered ridging builds in Monday night and Tuesday. Should
see gradual clearing as the low levels dry out and subsidence
increases from W to E. Lows Monday night should be a few degrees
above normal and highs on Tuesday around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The region will be between a closed low east of the southern
Maritimes and another closed low moving from S Central Canada
into the Great Lakes Region, resulting in ridging over the
region in between the two systems Tuesday night-Thursday.

It should be dry Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night
and quite possibly through Thursday. For now though do have
mainly isolated showers over the western 90 percent of the CWA
Thursday afternoon.

The models then differ over how fast the western closed low
moves towards the region, and how quickly it opens up Thursday
night through Saturday. As a result, have limited pops to chance
in this time frame - as it is hard with any degree of confidence
to say which 12 hour time block is more likely than any other
to receive any precipitation Thursday night-Saturday.

Temperatures should be above normal Tuesday night-Saturday.
However, there is low confidence in this forecast Friday-
Saturday as if the the closed low moves directly over the
region late next week, temperatures could end up quite a bit
cooler than currently forecast then.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: High confidence in VFR through Sunday. Sea breeze at
BHB today has shifted winds to the SE, but otherwise, a N
breeze 10-15 kts prevails. Winds may shift to the S at BGR
toward 22 or 23z before becoming light after 0z. Winds light
areawide tonight. Similar winds Sunday as we had Saturday, out
of the N around 10 kts, perhaps switching to the S in the
afternoon with sea breeze mainly at BHB.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday Night-Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions below SCA levels with no marine fog.

SHORT TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters should
limit winds to 10 kt or less and seas to 2 ft or less Sunday
night-Wednesday night. There is some potential the pressure
gradient could tighten a bit on Thursday with winds over the
ocean possibly going up to 15kt and seas on the ocean possibly
building up to 3 ft late in the day.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...Foisy/Maloit
Marine...Foisy/Maloit