814
FXUS61 KCLE 022325
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
725 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...00z TAF Aviation and Near Term Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the Central Great Lakes will weaken overnight as
high pressure builds in from the west. A warm front will lift north
across the area late Monday. A cold front extending from low
pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east across the area
late Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
700 pm update...
We made some minor adjustments to the hourly POPs 22z and 06z
this evening to better reflect the latest radar trends. We have
maintained 15 to 25 percent POPs through mid evening for a few
isolated rain showers. Going forward into the overnight, areas
of fog will develop. There is still some uncertainty on how
widespread and how thick the fog may become late tonight into
early Monday morning.

Previous discussion...
Breaks in the clouds across NW Ohio have allowed a minimal
amount of instability to develop. Regional radars show scattered
showers filling back in ahead of and along the front. Left a
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast mainly west of a
line from Cleveland to Akron but chances of thunder are pretty
low given warming in the mid- levels and meager instability. ML
CAPE may reach as high as 500 J/kg early this evening though so
a slight chance remains. With that said, did raise pops slightly
and linger them into the evening an extra hour or two as
several 12Z CAMs show these showers holding together to the east
through sunset.

Surface low pressure will be overcome by high pressure building
in from the west tonight. Winds will be very light or calm and
high boundary layer moisture with dewpoints near 60 degrees will
result in fog formation. Breaks developing in the clouds will
lead to cooling and fog or stratus filling in overnight. Models
are in good agreement that the coverage of fog will be pretty
good in areas from Mansfield to Akron to Youngstown that have
less opportunity to mix out early this evening. Dewpoints are
slightly lower behind the front in SW Lower Michigan but is
unclear if these will reach the area before winds drop off. A
Dense Fog Advisory may be needed overnight or early Monday
morning depending on the coverage and extent of the dense fog.

Fog will tend to lift on Monday morning with clouds scattering out
through the afternoon. A shortwave ridge will be overhead with a
capping inversion in place. Only concern for a brief shower might be
along the lake breeze, primarily in NW Pennsylvania where surface
convergence looks a little stronger during the early afternoon.
Included a 20 pop in this area but most of the day will be dry.
Southerly flow and warm advection will push temperatures into the
upper 70s(east) to low 80s(west) on Monday. Shortwave energy rounds
the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes on Monday night. Moisture
return is focused across Michigan along the warm front but low
levels do not seem to moisten enough in Ohio to need a pop for
Monday night. Lows temperatures trend upwards a few more degrees as
we head into a warm stretch for first half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Mainly quiet weather on Tuesday will become more active by Wednesday
as an upper-level trough moves east through the Great Lakes,
bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening hours.

An upper-level ridge will reside across the Eastern Great Lakes on
Tuesday which should largely keep precipitation chances at bay. Only
exception may be an isolated shower/storm associated with a lake
breeze Tuesday afternoon, though even this potential appears low
given dry mid-levels. Tuesday will feature the warmest temperatures
of the foreseeable future with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

An upper-level trough will slide east across the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and is expected to weaken as it becomes cut-off from the
main jet energy. Nonetheless, favorable low-level moisture combined
with lift from the trough will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms on Wednesday. Mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots (0-3
SRH ~100 m2/s2) could support some stronger storms/bowing segments
with primarily a wind threat, although we`re not looking at anything
too widespread or organized at this time given weak mid-level lapse
rates <6 C/km in addition to abundant cloud cover which should limit
the MLCAPE. Area soundings do favor a heavy rain threat with any
stronger storms given PWATs between 1.60 and 1.80 inches, skinny
CAPE profiles, and warm cloud depths >10kft.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned upper-level low will become cut-off sometime
Wednesday night into Thursday as it slowly meanders across the
Eastern Great Lakes through much of the weekend, becoming trapped
within an upper-level "Omega Block" pattern. This will allow
multiple shortwave disturbances to impact the region through the
weekend, with the pattern resembling that more of early Spring
versus early Summer. The forecast in the long term will favor
slightly below-average temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
periodic rain showers with occasional thunderstorms during the day,
and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The main aviation weather concern for this TAF period will be
the potential for low ceilings and areas of dense fog possible
late tonight into early Monday morning.

Conditions are starting off this evening with VFR to MVFR
ceilings across much of northern Ohio and NWPA. Some parts of
NWOH have cleared out from the clouds this evening. With recent
rainfall today and wet grounds, there will be the potential for
areas of fog and low stratus to redevelop later tonight into
early Monday morning. We have this potential outlined in the
TAFs mainly after 06z overnight through about 13z Monday
morning. There is still some uncertainty of the fog development
and how widespread or thick it may become. We have all TAF
sites reaching IFR to LIFR conditions after 06z through about
12z or 13z. We will maintain 1sm BR and broken at 500 feet with
a TEMPO ground between 08z and 12z of 1/2sm fg and broken at 300
feet possible. Any fog and low stratus should burn off
relatively quickly Monday morning after 13z quickly becoming VFR
by late morning through the rest of the day. Scattered high
clouds and scattered CU at 3500 feet will be around Monday
afternoon. Winds will be light and variably under 5 knots
tonight into Monday morning. Winds will become southerly around
5 knots later Monday morning through the afternoon. There will
likely be a lake breeze for CLE and ERI midday to early
afternoon on Monday.

Outlook...Thunderstorms and associated non-VFR possible at
times Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
A mainly quiet marine period is in store through much of the week as
winds are expected to be less than 20 knots, favoring an offshore
direction. Some patchy fog may develop across the central and
eastern basins of the Lake tonight. A few stronger storms with
primarily a wind threat are possible on Wednesday afternoon and
evening as an upper-level trough swings east across the region. The
wind direction will become more westerly by Thursday and Friday,
around 15 knots, which could bring some 3 to perhaps 4-footers
across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Griffin
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Kahn