Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
310 FXUS64 KCRP 271122 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 622 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness today. - Low (20%) chance of thunderstorms today - some could be strong to severe. Two phases to the forecast today, the first will be the continued heat risk. Once again, expect heat index values at or above 115 for a good portion of the area for a period this afternoon. Yesterday clouds kept temperatures down a bit, but expect fewer clouds today, thus the continues excessive heat warning. Have expanded the warning to a few more counties (Live Oak, Bee and inland San Patricio). Will maintain the advisory for the rest of the area (minus the islands). After today we`ll start getting shortwaves through here that will lead to more cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. This should knock the heat concern back just a bit. Heat advisories will still be possible for tomorrow, but excessive heat warnings look less likely. The aforementioned shortwaves will play a role into the second phase of our forecast today...the potential for a few thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight. Confidence is low on this occurring as we`ll still have a pretty stout warm layer above the surface, but if surface temperatures/moisture levels get high enough, we could break the cap. If that happens, conditions are favorable for storms that would develop to get strong to severe with cape values 3-4 J/KG and lapse rates of 7-8 C/Km. GFS has been very robust with convection the past few days, but seems overdone with some convective feedback likely in play. Other models are more reasonable, but still plenty of differences among them. HRRR shows little convection getting crossing into Texas while the FV3 has been showing considerably more. Thus adding to the low confidence. Whatever the result, it bears watching, especially in the Rio Grande Plains, mainly after 6pm this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Low chances (15-30%) of rain daily this week Not much change from previous forecasts. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to dominate the long term before an upper-level ridge begins to move in towards the last day of the extended forecast. A series of shortwaves will traverse across the region throughout the long term increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values throughout the long term are expected to range from from 1.80-2.20" which ranks in the top 10 percent of climatology. Despite the abundance of moisture, models are showing a strong cap in place throughout the long term which would be the limiting factor in the development of any showers and/or thunderstorms. Due to the uncertainty, continued to go with the low end rain chances (15-30%) that previous forecast have shown. With the increase of cloud cover and possible precipitation throughout the long term, daytime highs are expected to come down from the absurd levels they have been at recently which will in turn keep our heat indices generally under 112 degrees. Despite the more normal temperatures and reduced heat indices, there is still a medium to high chance for a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts with a low to medium chance of an extreme risk across the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country due to the anticipated poor overnight recoveries. As we continue with these elevated risk of heat-related impacts, please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 MVFR conditions at most sites this morning - LRD remaining VFR. Improvement expected over the next few hours. VFR conditions are moderate winds through the day. A few thunderstorms will become possible after 00Z for LRD and COT. Chances are low, but have included in tempo group with this forecast update. MVFR conditions expected again for eastern sites tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across the Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 94 80 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 98 77 95 77 / 0 10 10 20 Laredo 107 80 103 78 / 10 20 20 30 Alice 102 78 98 78 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 92 80 91 81 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 108 79 100 78 / 10 20 20 30 Kingsville 99 79 96 79 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 92 82 91 82 / 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>232-239>244. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...PH/83