127
FXUS64 KCRP 160840
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
340 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms today.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  tomorrow.

During this period, our primary concern revolves around the
potential for isolated severe storms. Though some scattered
shower and thunderstorm potential is possible this morning, our
time of concern is particularly during the afternoon and evening
hours today and continuing into Friday. The current atmospheric
setup presents favorable conditions for the development of
convective activity, driven by southeasterly flow ahead of an
advancing surface low and accompanying dryline across Central
Texas. This influx of moisture has elevated PWATs to approximately
2.0 inches within the warm sector.

Aloft, the progression of a mid-level trough accompanied by
multiple embedded shortwaves, is expected to traverse eastward.
This system will provide the necessary lift to initiate shower
and thunderstorm development. Models indicate the potential for a
few of these storms to be strong or severe. SBCAPE values
exceeding 4000 J/kg, coupled with bulk shear values ranging
between 40-50 kts, heighten the potential for severe weather. With
this in mind, SPC has increased the risk for severe thunderstorms
to a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for today, primarily focusing
on areas northeast of I-37. Damaging winds and large hail will be
the primary threats. Concurrently, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall in the Victoria
Crossroads region, highlighting the potential for localized flash
flooding.

A gradual decrease in convective activity is expected by late
evening as diurnal heating wanes. However, a low chance (20-30%)
of rain persists into Friday as the surface low and dryline
continue their eastward trajectory. This low will allow for
enhanced low-level convergence along the dryline. In addition,
SBCAPE values will hover around 4000 J/kg, bulk shear will
increase to 70-80 kts, and PWATs will range from 1.5 - 2.0 inches.
These atmospheric parameters suggest a continued risk of showers
and thunderstorms, particularly in our eastern areas, a few of
which could again be strong to severe. SPC has extended the
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms to include the entirety of
the Coastal Plains.


As for temperatures, they will be warm. Highs will top out in mid
80s to low 90s in eastern portions of our area with mid 90s to
low 100s out west. With dew points in the upper 70s to lower 80s
this will lead to elevated heat indices tomorrow the area. Most
should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (less than 110 degrees),
but isolated portions of the Southern Coastal Plains could briefly
get above that.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Key Messages:

- A risk of heat related impacts Monday through Wednesday across the
Brush Country and southern Coastal Plains.

Concur with the deterministic GFS/ECMWF that subsidence/drying (with
PWAT values over the CWA falling to below normal) will occur
Saturday/Sunday as an upper level disturbance moves east of the
region. A warmer airmass is predicted Monday through Wednesday,
manifested by an upper ridge that builds over the region, per the
GFS/ECMWF. A progressive pattern is expected to remain over the
northern 2/3 of the CONUS, contributing to return flow/increasing
moisture over the region beginning Saturday night/early Sunday. The
GFS/ECMWF predict PWAT values to increase to near/slightly above
normal over the CWA Monday through Wednesday. The combination of
heating/increasing moisture will increase maximum Heat Index values
over the region. WPC predicts a 40-70 percent chance that the
maximum Heat Index threshold of 110F will be met over the Brush
Country and southern Coastal Plains Monday through Wednesday. The
NBM predicts 8s maximum swell period over the coastal waters
Saturday/Sunday, which may increase the risk of rip currents along
the Gulf-facing beaches of the Middle Texas coast to the Moderate
category.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

The TAF forecast tonight is deceptively tricky. Model guidance is
not handling the cloud cover very well. Observations show that VFR
ceilings currently prevail over the area, but satellite imagery
definitely hints at MVFR cloud cover developing at or shortly
after 06Z across South Texas. While confidence is low, there is
a chance that IFR visibility could develop for VCT and ALI so have
left a TEMPO in the TAF for these sites. By midday Thursday,
expect VFR conditions to prevail. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Coastal Plains
and Victoria Crossroads, so have the mention of VCTS for CRP, ALI,
and VCT. Some of these storms could be strong to severe.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Moderate onshore flow will be present today. Winds will decrease
to under 15 knots tonight. There is a low to medium chance for
showers and thunderstorms across the local waters today with the
best chances across the northern bays and offshore waters. If a
storm does develop, there is a low chance they could become strong
to severe. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue Friday. Dissipating convection expected Friday night,
followed by subsidence/drying Saturday/Sunday, as an upper level
disturbance moves east. A warming trend is expected Monday through
Wednesday, with weak to moderate onshore flow. Maximum Heat Index
values near 90 to the lower 90s are anticipated for
Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    92  78  92  76 /  30   0  20   0
Victoria          89  73  87  71 /  60  20  20  10
Laredo           102  77  98  76 /   0  10  20   0
Alice             94  75  94  73 /  30  10  30  10
Rockport          87  78  88  77 /  40  10  20  10
Cotulla           97  74  96  74 /  20  10  10   0
Kingsville        93  77  92  75 /  20  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       89  80  90  80 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS/98
LONG TERM....WC/87
AVIATION...LS/77