Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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501 FXUS64 KCRP 192009 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 There`s no more putting it off, we`re settling in to a typically South Texas summer pattern. Mid-level ridging has built into the region and will hold strong through the short term. This along with surface ridging over the Southeast US spells warm and humid for us here in South Texas. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s area wide, with upper 70s to near 80 east. High temperatures Monday are forecast above 100 degrees for the Rio Grande Plains and western Brush country with mainly 90s for the rest of the area. Considering the high dewpoints (upper 70s east) and it being early season, this will mean an elevated concern for heat related illness, especially for those especially susceptible to the high heat. No mentionable rain chances are in place, but given the high humidity and moisture convergence near the coast, can`t rule out a morning streamer shower or sprinkle on Monday. In addition, the haze will likely stick around through the early part of the week, and tomorrow could be combined with some fog, especially in the northern coastal bend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 - Major to extreme heat-related impacts through the week Upper level ridging and persistent onshore flow will allow for temperatures to reach dangerous levels through the week. High temperatures will settle into the low 90s along the coast to around 105 across the Brush Country. Heat indices will climb through the week. Tuesday through Thursday will feature afternoon heat indices in the 110-114 range. By Friday, we begin to see heat indices of 115- 120 enter into the forecast for the Southern Coastal Bend and Brush Country. As a result, we will see a major to extreme risk of heat- related impacts through the long term period. Heat Advisories will be likely each day through the middle of the week with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by the end of the work week. Other than the heat in the long term, the ridge axis will nudge east by the middle of the week. Several shortwaves will rotate through the southwest flow aloft as a boundary stalls north of the region. The greatest chances for showers/storms will likely remain well north of the region. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Starting to get into a typical summertime diurnal pattern with overnight MVFR CIGS returning to VFR during the daytime hours. Have some moderate winds noted at CRP this afternoon, then at LRD/COT overnight as the sea breeze reaches there. Will also keep an MVFR VIS condition at times due to persistent haze over the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected tonight through Tuesday Onshore flow then become more moderate by Tuesday night, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday and Thursday afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters. Smoke will linger at times through the week as fires continue to burn to our south. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 77 93 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 73 92 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 102 78 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 89 79 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 76 101 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 94 77 96 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 90 80 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....TC/95 AVIATION...PH