569
ACUS48 KWNS 010829
SWOD48
SPC AC 010828

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance has come into better agreement with the
evolution of the northern-stream shortwave trough expected to move
through the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday. Much of
guidance suite now suggests this wave will mature into a cyclone
over Manitoba on D5/Wednesday before then tracking southeastward
over Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday.
Surface low will be stacked beneath the mid/upper level cyclone by
D5/Wednesday, while an associated cold front moves
eastward/southeastward through the Upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley
on D4/Tuesday. This initial front will likely weaken on
D5/Wednesday, before another more substantial frontal push occurs on
D6/Thursday, taking the front through much of the central Plains and
OH Valley.

Thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of this cold front,
beginning across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday and continuing
across the central Plains on D5/Wednesday. Thunderstorms will remain
possible across the central Plains on D6/Thursday, with storms
possible across the middle/upper OH Valley as well.

Uncertainty regarding severe coverage precludes the need for an area
across the Upper Midwest on D4/Tuesday, while uncertainties
regarding frontal timing limit predictability on D5/Wednesday and
D6/Thursday.

The front is not expected to effect much of the southern Plains with
low-level moisture remaining over the region on D7/Friday and
D8/Saturday. This suggests some thunderstorms are possible but the
lack of any large, more synoptic scale features limits
predictability.

..Mosier.. 06/01/2024