Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
508 FXUS63 KDVN 290553 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1253 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong storms possible this afternoon into the early evening mainly along and east of the Mississippi River. - Quiet nice weather midweek, with low humidity and comfortable temperatures. - Chances for precipitation return late in the week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Partly to mostly sunny skies were seen early this afternoon across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri. Across our north, however, scattered showers and storms were ongoing across portions of far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois ahead of a shortwave diving south across the region. As of 200 pm, temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Going through the early afternoon, look for this shortwave to drive additional shower and storm development across portions of the area. Right now, the most favorable chances continue to be across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois along and north of Interstate 80. Here, latest deterministic guidance has higher mid-level lapse rates and forcing with the shortwave. The main threats with storms will be damaging winds given inverted V profiles driving higher DCAPE, with a secondary threat of large hail where higher instabilities can be achieved. A Level 1 (marginal) risk of severe thunderstorms remains outlooked by SPC. Storms will be mainly diurnally driven, so expect coverage to wane head into the evening. High pressure will follow and build across the area tonight, bringing cool and dry conditions to the area. Look for overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. For Wednesday, a quiet day is in store with pleasant temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Skies will feature plenty of sunshine with PM clouds. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Wednesday Night through Friday... High pressure will keep the area quiet and dry through mid-week. Temperatures will moderate back into the mid to upper 70s Thursday as southerly flow returns. In addition, clouds will be on the increase ahead of developing weather for late week. For Friday, chances of showers and thunderstorms have decreased quite a bit in this mornings model guidance. This is due to a slowdown of the incoming system and movement of the high to the east. Friday looks to be mainly dry with mostly cloudy skies and similar temperatures to Thursday. Friday night on... Active weather returns this weekend into early next week with several shortwaves on track to move through the Midwest. It does not look like a washout as there will be times when we will be dry. Regardless, there are at least chances of showers and thunderstorms areawide each day. There is no strong signal for severe thunderstorms at this time, though SCP probabilities do trend upwards for our area Sunday into Monday. Temperatures look to warm above normal with highs approaching the upper 80s Sunday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as high pressure builds into the area at the surface and aloft. Northerly winds wil increase to 5 to 10 knots afer 12 UTC on Wednesday. A scattered to broken cloud deck around 4 kft will develop during the late morning and continue through 00 UTC. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Most areas received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in the past 24 hours. The exception was right along the Wapsipinicon River, where amounts between a half inch and one inch were reported. The lower portions of the Iowa and Cedar rivers continue to rise with most sites expected to see Minor flooding. The crests will occur within the next 2 days at locations along these rivers. The Wapsi River near Anamosa and De Witt continue to rise with routed flow working its way down from upstream. The river is expected to remain below Moderate flood at Anamosa with a crest of 17.9 feet late Wednesday evening. The Wapsi River near De Witt has reached Major flood stage this morning and will slowly rise the rest of this week to a crest of 13.3 feet early next week. Rainfall will be spotty this afternoon and not anticipated to impact the current forecasts. On the Mississippi, upgraded New Boston to a Flood Warning given increased confidence of the site reaching flood in 3 days due to routed flow. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Cousins HYDROLOGY...Gross