767
ACUS02 KWNS 231722
SWODY2
SPC AC 231721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS AND TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are
possible from southern Lake Michigan across the Mid Mississippi and
Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday. Damaging gusts and very large hail
also will be possible across parts of southeast Oklahoma and the
ArkLaTex area.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a shortwave trough will move from the northern Plains
into western Ontario, with a southern lead wave pivoting across the
upper MS valley and Great Lakes. A surface low will move north out
of MN, with a cold front extending south from IA into MO and toward
northern TX by afternoon. A very moist air mass will remain ahead of
the cold front, resulting in an expansive instability field to the
east, with corridors of severe wind and hail expected.

...Mid/Upper MS Valley toward southwest Lower MI...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from MN southward to perhaps
northern MO, and possibly in concert with the previous nights MCS.
Heating east of the cold front and any ongoing activity will lead to
moderate destabilization, favoring either a continuation of damaging
wind threat or providing foci for later development along outflows.

Shear profiles will be most favorable for supercells over eastern
IA/northern IL into southern WI where a warm front will enhance
low-level shear. Cells that develop here may produce a couple
tornadoes, assuming storm mode is not linear.

Farther south into MO and IL and IN, the large instability field
will support any MCS that forms during the heat of the day, with
localized areas of wind damage expected.

...Northeast TX into AR/Mid South...
Isolated supercells will be possible anywhere along the front where
heating can remove the cap. Scattered large storms producing hail
and locally damaging winds are anticipated as the air mass will be
very moist and unstable. Low-level winds will be weak but moderate
mid to high level winds should aid storm organization and hail
potential.

Otherwise, ongoing storm clusters cannot be ruled out over much of
the area from southern MO into AR and TN, and these would likely
persist east/southeastward across the broad and unstable air mass
with damaging wind corridors.

..Jewell.. 05/23/2024

$$