108
ACUS03 KWNS 010716
SWODY3
SPC AC 010715

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHERN KS...SOUTHERN MO...AND NORTHERN
AR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from
western/northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, southern Missouri,
and northern Arkansas on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Predominantly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the central
CONUS early Monday morning, with at least some potential for a
convectively augmented vorticity maximum to be in the lower MO
Valley vicinity. This largely zonal flow is forecast to remain in
place until late Monday night/early Tuesday morning when some modest
amplification begins to develop ahead of a strong shortwave trough
expected to move quickly from the Pacific Northwest to the northern
High Plains.

A warm and moist airmass will likely be in place from the
central/southern Plains into Lower/Mid MS Valley, but the lack of
notable shortwave troughs will result in mesoscale features acting
as the primary impetus for thunderstorm development. Some guidance
suggests an outflow boundary from Sunday night`s thunderstorms could
initiate in south-central/southeast KS and southern MO vicinity.
Shear will likely be modest, but strong buoyancy could still result
in severe storms. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
along the dryline in western OK.

A surface low is expected to move northeastward across the northern
Plains late Monday night through early Tuesday morning. A cold front
will sweep southeastward in its wake, supporting isolated
thunderstorm development. Limited buoyancy should mitigate the
overall severe potential.

..Mosier.. 06/01/2024

$$